Risk- it is the probability of loss or decrease in expected income or profit compared to the acceptable option due to an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, unfavorable, including force majeure, circumstances.
Under entrepreneurial risk it is customary to understand the possible (probable) danger (threat) of the occurrence of material and financial losses by the enterprise of part of the income not provided for by the design concept as a result of entrepreneurial (production, commercial, investment and financial) activities in conditions of uncertainty and lack of information for making managerial decisions. The main prerequisite for the emergence of entrepreneurial risk is the presence of competition and alternative solutions to certain issues of enterprise development, the effectiveness of its functioning.
The reasons for entrepreneurial risk are:
Sudden, unforeseen changes in environment(increase in prices, changes in tax legislation and the socio-political situation, etc.);
The appearance of more advantageous offers for partners (the opportunity to conclude a more profitable contract, with more attractive terms and conditions of payment), which encourages them to refuse to conclude or fulfill previous agreements;
Changes in the targets of partners (due to an increase in status, the accumulation of positive performance results, changes in strategy, etc.);
Changing the conditions for the movement of commodity, financial and labor resources between enterprises (the emergence of new customs conditions, new borders, etc.).
Distinguish global(national) and local(enterprise level) risks. They condition each other, influence each other and at the same time are autonomous. For example, the adoption of a decision at the state level to change (tighten) the tax, credit and financial policy introduces elements of risk into the activities of the enterprise. And vice versa, individual decisions taken at the level of enterprises to change the range and volume of production, the implementation of individual social programs and the like, may be in conflict with national interests and contribute to the emergence of global risks.
According to the duration of exposure, there are:
Short-term risks - risks in which the threat of loss is limited to a certain period of time (selection of an optional counterparty, transport risk when carrying a certain cargo; risk of non-payment for a specific transaction);
Permanent risks - risks that continuously threaten business activities in a given geographical area or in a certain sector of the economy (the risk of non-payment in a country with an imperfect legal system; the risk of a ban and the introduction of quotas on production).
According to the sources of occurrence, they are classified:
Own economic risk;
Risk associated with the personality of workers;
Risk due to natural factors.
For reasons of occurrence, the following risks are distinguished:
Due to the uncertainty of the future;
Unpredictability of partner behavior;
Lack of information.
By type of enterprise, the risk is classified into industrial, commercial and financial.
Production risk- this is the risk associated with the production of non-competitive products (works, services), with the implementation of inefficient production activities, discrepancy between product quality and demand, an increase in material or other costs, an increase in loss of working time, the payment of increased taxes and interest on loans, which leads to a decrease in estimated production volumes and its efficiency. Production risk includes many risks, such as technical and investment risks.
Technical risk - the risk of losses caused by the use of inefficient technologies and materials, equipment breakdowns.
Investment risk - the risk of incurring losses or not making a profit as a result of investing in new technology and technologies, the production of products on the basis of which will not meet demand.
Commercial risk - risk in the field of sale of goods and services produced or in the procurement necessary resources enterprise. Reasons for commercial risk: decrease in sales due to changes in market conditions, increase purchase price resources, an unforeseen decrease in the volume of purchases, loss of goods in the process of circulation, an increase in distribution costs. For example, commercial risks include:
Risks of incorrect choice of economic goals of an entrepreneurial project (unreasonable prioritization of the overall economic and market strategy of the enterprise; inadequate assessment of the needs of own production and external consumption);
Risks of failure to provide the project with funding or the disappearance of the source of funding for the project during its implementation;
Risks of non-compliance with the planned expenditure schedule or income schedule for the project;
Marketing risks of selling products or purchasing resources for an entrepreneurial project;
Risks of interaction with counterparties and partners;
Risks of unexpected expenses and overestimation of project costs (risk of increase in market prices for resources; risk of future interest rate increase; risk of having to pay penalties and arbitration costs);
Risks of unforeseen competition (risk of entry into the industry of enterprises from other industries; risk of emergence of local young enterprises-competitors; risk of expansion into the local market by foreign exporters).
financial risk – risk in the sphere of relations of the enterprise with banks and other financial institutions. The financial risk of an enterprise is most often measured by the ratio of the amount of borrowed funds to the amount of own funds. The higher this ratio, the more the enterprise depends on creditors in its activities, the greater the risk, because the termination of lending or the tightening of credit conditions may lead to the suspension of production.
An additional classification of entrepreneurial risks can be found.
Depending on the level at which they arise and the scale of their action, risks are distinguished:
megaeconomic, related to the functioning of the world economy as a whole;
macroeconomic, related to functioning economic system given state;
mesoeconomic, formed at the level of individual sectors of the economy and specific areas of business;
microeconomic, formed at the level of individual economic entities.
Taken together, all of these risks form single economic risk flow, in constant motion, since there are so-called "joint layers" between the levels and therefore individual risks "live" on different levels simultaneously.
Depending on the source of the causes that cause the occurrence of a risky situation, risks are distinguished external and internal . Source of occurrence external risks is the environment external to the enterprise. At the same time, the factors external environment can have both direct and indirect, i.e. indirect impact on the life of the organization. Managers of the organization cannot influence these risks, but only anticipate and take them into account in their activities. For example, possible changes in legislation, changes in consumer tastes, increased competition, stability or instability of the political regime in the country, strikes, nationalization, wars, etc. Internal risks arise under the influence of factors of the internal environment of a business entity, for example, in the case of ineffective management, erroneous marketing policy, as a result of intra-company abuse. These risks can be significantly reduced by effective organization production and economic activities and management.
It should also highlight tolerable, critical and catastrophic risks . Tolerable risk- this is the threat of losses in a smaller amount or at the level of the expected profit from the implementation of a particular project or business operation. Critical Risk associated with the risk of loss in the amount of the costs incurred for the implementation of the project or business operation. At the same time, the critical risk of the first degree is associated with the threat of obtaining zero income, but with reimbursement of the material costs incurred. Critical risk of the second degree is associated with the possibility of losses in the amount of full costs as a result of the implementation of a project or business operation. Under catastrophic risk risk is understood as the risk of losses in the amount equal to or exceeding the value of the entire property status of the organization. Catastrophic risk usually leads to bankruptcy.
According to the degree of legitimacy of economic risk can be distinguished justified (lawful) and unjustified (illegal) risks. The boundary between them is different types production and economic activities in different sectors of the economy is different.
All economic risks can also be divided into two large groups in accordance with the possibility of insurance: insured and uninsured . Risk insured- probable event, in case of occurrence of which insurance is provided. Depending on the source of danger, insurance risks are divided into risks associated with the manifestation of natural forces of nature, and risks associated with purposeful human actions. If losses arising from an insurable risk are covered by payments from insurance companies, then losses arising from an uninsurable risk are reimbursed from the organization's own funds.
In addition, the risks are divided into pure and speculative . Peculiarity pure risks is that they almost always carry losses. At the same time, losses for the organization, as a rule, mean at the same time losses for society as a whole. Unlike pure risks, speculative risks are either losses or gains for the organization.
Pure risks, depending on the cause of occurrence, are divided into natural, environmental, political and commercial . To natural risks include risks associated with losses as a result of a negative impact on the assets of an organization of natural disasters. Environmental risks are the risks associated with environmental pollution. Political risks related to the political situation in the country and the activities of the state. Accounting for this type of risk is especially important in countries with unstable legislation, lack of traditions and business culture. To assess political risk, a global network of specialized think tanks both commercial and non-commercial in nature, which count for different countries the degree of political risk in these countries.
Political risks are divided into the risks of nationalization, transfer, breach of contract, hostilities and civil unrest.
Risks of nationalization are interpreted very broadly - from expropriation without adequate compensation to forced repurchase by the authorities of the organization's property or, for example, restricting investors' access to asset management.
Transfer risks associated with the conversion of local currency into a foreign one. They are due to the impossibility of carrying out full-fledged economic activity due to the restriction of the conversion of the national currency into the payment currency.
Contract termination risks related to situations where the contract is terminated for reasons beyond the control of the partner due to the actions of the authorities of the country in which the counterparty organization is located, for example, due to changes in national legislation or due to the introduction of a moratorium on external payments.
Risks of military action and civil unrest associated with the impossibility of carrying out economic activities due to the named events, which can bring big losses and even bankruptcy.
Commercial risks represent the danger of losses in the process of production and economic activity, they are divided into property, production, trade.
Property risks associated with the probability of loss of property of the organization due to: criminal acts (due to theft, sabotage, negligence); death or incapacity of key employees or the main owner of the organization (due to the difficulty of recruiting appropriately qualified personnel and problems of transfer of ownership rights); threats to the property of third parties (there is a need for a forced termination of activities).
Production risks associated with the implementation of any types of production activities, when the following situations arise:
Reduction in production volumes due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime, loss of working time, lack of required amount raw materials, materials, components, fuel, energy, increasing the level of marriage;
Decrease in prices for manufactured products, services rendered due to their insufficient quality, unfavorable changes in market conditions, falling demand;
Growth of material costs as a result of overspending of raw materials, materials, components, fuel, energy, as well as due to an increase in transportation costs, trading costs, overhead and other expenses;
Growth of the wage fund due to an increase in the number of employees or in connection with the payment of a higher level of wages than planned;
An increase in tax and non-tax payments as a result of changes in their rates in an unfavorable direction for the organization;
Poor discipline of deliveries, interruptions in the supply of energy resources;
Physical and moral deterioration of equipment.
As part of production risks, a separate group is distinguished technical risks, which are associated with the risk of losses arising from man-made disasters and equipment breakdowns. Technical risks depend on the level of production organization, timely implementation of preventive measures (regular maintenance of equipment, safety measures). At the same time, the risks of losses arising from malfunctions in the work computer systems in information processing are called operational risks.
Production risks also include innovative risks, that occurs when:
Negative results of research and development;
Incorrect estimation of demand for new products when a new product or service does not find a buyer;
Misjudging the cost-effectiveness of new, cheaper technologies, as the organization is the sole owner for too short a period of time new technology and excess profit does not have time to cover the costs incurred;
Inconsistencies new products or services to the norms and regulations and the impossibility of selling the new equipment created at the same time, as it is not suitable for the production of other products or services;
Non-compliance of the quality of a new product or service with the technical parameters planned in the course of design and technological development due to the use of old equipment.
Trading risks arise in the process of selling goods and services, transporting and accepting them by the buyer due to:
Decrease in sales volumes as a result of falling demand, crowding out by competing products, imposing restrictions on sales;
Payment delays;
loss of goods;
Losses in the quality of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage), which leads to a decrease in its price;
An increase in distribution costs compared to planned as a result of the payment of fines, unforeseen fees and deductions, which leads to a decrease in the profit of the organization.
Risks associated with the transportation of goods, transport risks, most often turned out to be the cause of conflicts between business entities.
Speculative risks arise in the process of the relationship of the organization with financial institutions, so they are also called financial risks. Financial risks are divided into two large groups: risks associated with the purchasing power of money, and investment risks associated with investing capital.
To the risks associated with the purchasing power of money, include inflationary and deflationary risks, liquidity risks, currency risks.
Inflation risk - the risk that, as inflation rises, the cash income depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they rise at par. In such circumstances, the organization suffers real losses. deflationary risk - the risk that as deflation increases, the price level will fall and the organization's revenues will decrease.
Liquidity risks - risks associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and use value.
Currency risks represent the risk of losses as a result of changes in the exchange rate, which may occur between the conclusion of the contract and the actual production of settlements on it in the course of foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions. There are currency risks for the importer and exporter. Currency risks for the exporter associated with a fall in the foreign exchange rate from the moment the order is received or confirmed until payment is received and during negotiations. Currency risks for the importer associated with an increase in the exchange rate in the period of time between the date of confirmation of the order and the day of payment.
Currency risks include three varieties: economic risk, transfer risk, transaction risk.
Economic risk for the organization is that the value of its assets and liabilities may change up or down due to future changes in the exchange rate.
Translation risk has an accounting nature and is associated with differences in the accounting of assets and liabilities of the organization in foreign currency.
Transaction risk - is the probability of cash foreign exchange losses on business transactions in foreign currencies. Transaction risk thus considers the impact of a change in the exchange rate on the future flow of payments and on the future profitability of the organization as a whole.
Investment risks accompany organizations when they invest in certain projects and include the following subspecies: capital, selective, country, temporary, risk of lost profits, risk of reduced profitability, risk of direct financial losses. According to experts, the level of investment risk in Russian organizations on a 10-point system today averages 7-10 points, in US organizations - 1-4 points.
Capital risk - the risk that the investor will not be able to release the invested funds without loss.
Selective risk - the risk of choosing the wrong object for investment in comparison with other options that have taken place.
Country risk - the risk of losses in connection with the investment of funds in objects under the jurisdiction of a country with an unstable socio-economic situation.
Time risk - the risk of losses that are associated with investing funds at the wrong time.
Risk of Lost Profit– it is the risk of indirect financial damage in the form of non-receipt of profit as a result of the failure to implement any activity.
Profitability downside risks include interest and credit risks.
To interest rate risks refers to the risk of losses to the organization as a result of an increase in interest rates paid on borrowed funds over the rates on loans granted. Interest risks also include the risks of losses that investors may incur due to changes in dividends on shares, interest rates on the bond market, certificates and other securities. An increase in the market rate of interest leads to a decrease in the market value of securities, especially bonds with a fixed interest rate. With an increase in the interest rate, a massive dumping of securities issued at lower fixed interest rates and under the terms of issue early accepted back by the issuer may begin. The interest rate risk is borne by an investor who has invested in medium-term and long-term fixed-interest securities with a current increase in the average market interest compared to the fixed level. The investor could receive an increase in income due to an increase in interest, but cannot release his funds invested on the conditions indicated above. The issuer also bears the interest rate risk by issuing medium-term and long-term securities with a fixed interest rate, with the current decrease in the average market interest rate compared to the fixed level. The issuer could raise funds from the market at a lower interest rate, but he is already bound by the issue of securities.
Credit risks associated with the possibility of non-fulfillment by the organization of its financial obligations to the investor when using an external loan to finance production and economic activities. Thus, credit risks are the danger of non-payment by the borrower of principal or interest due to the lender.
Credit risks also include the risks of such events in which the issuer that issued debt securities is unable to pay interest on them or the principal amount of the debt.
Credit risks are divided into property, moral and business risks. property risk due to the fact that the borrower's own assets may not be enough to cover the amount of the loan. moral hazard associated with the moral qualities of the borrower, the danger of his dishonesty. business risk is determined by the extent to which the organization is able to produce the necessary profit for the period of time for which it took the loan, and is associated with the risk of deterioration in the competitive position of the organization that received a commercial or bank loan, or unfavorable economic conditions.
Risks of direct financial losses include exchange, selective and bankruptcy risks.
Exchange risks represent the risk of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include, for example, risks of non-payment on commercial transactions, risks of non-payment of commission fees to a brokerage firm.
Selective risks - these are the risks of choosing the wrong method of investing capital, for example, the type of securities for investment when forming an investment portfolio.
Bankruptcy risks represent the danger of a complete loss of equity by the organization as a result of the wrong choice of the method of investing capital and its inability to pay for its obligations.
Entrepreneurial risk has a number of functions:
business income function by taking advantage of favorable market conditions;
innovative the function that an entrepreneur performs to produce innovative goods, meet market needs and ensure sustainable reproduction on an innovative basis;
analytical a function that facilitates the necessary economic maneuver at the right time to obtain entrepreneurial income;
social a function when risk stimulates the development of entrepreneurial abilities of employees of business structures, which increases their income, and hence budget revenues and reduces unemployment.
All factors influencing the growth of the degree of risk of an enterprise can be conditionally divided into external and internal; objective and subjective; direct and indirect impact.
External risk factors - adverse events in the environment external to the enterprise, which are not influenced by the enterprise. External factors are called objective, not dependent on the enterprise itself:
these are inflation, competition, political, socio-economic and environmental crises, customs duties, the abolition of the most favored nation treatment, the inability to work in the zones of free economic enterprise.
Factors that directly affect risk - factors that directly affect the level of risk (changes in the tax system, competition in the market, changes in demand for products).
Factors of indirect influence - factors that do not have a direct, immediate impact on the level of risk, but contribute to its change (international situation, political and general economic situation in the country, the economic situation of the industry, etc.).
It is expedient to carry out an analysis of risk factors external to the enterprise in the context of general description its functioning in conditions of real or possible interaction with economic counterparties and environments.
Thus, the properties of the external environment relate primarily to natural and climatic factors; the socio-demographic situation in the region, which determines its labor surplus or labor insufficiency for various categories of workers, the prestige of a particular profession or type of activity; socio-political conditions on which the situation in the region depends, the degree of orientation of the population towards productive labor, the level of social tension; the state of the consumer market as a background for the formation of regional needs for the company's products; the standard of living of the population as a factor in paying for this need; the purchasing power of the ruble; dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations; the general level of entrepreneurial activity, which characterizes the propensity of people to be involved in entrepreneurial initiatives.
In the sphere of circulation, the activity of an enterprise may be exposed to such external factors as violation by allied enterprises of agreed schedules for the supply of raw materials, components, and the like, unmotivated refusal of wholesale consumers to export or pay for finished products received, bankruptcy or self-liquidation of counterparty enterprises or business partners, which leads to to the disappearance of suppliers of raw materials or consumers of finished products.
Internal factors risk are generated by the production and commercial activities of the enterprise itself, by the subjective decisions of its leaders.
In the process of production, reproduction, circulation and management, specific factors arise that can provoke corresponding risks. To risk factors of the main production activities include an insufficient level of technological discipline, accidents, unscheduled shutdowns of equipment or interruptions in the technological cycle of the enterprise due to forced readjustment of equipment (for example, due to an unexpected change in the parameters of raw materials or materials used in the technological process).
Risk factors for ancillary production activities- these are interruptions in power supply, lengthening compared to the planned terms of equipment repair, accidents auxiliary systems(ventilation devices, water and heat supply systems, etc.), unpreparedness of the enterprise’s tool economy for the development of a new product, etc.
In the service sector production processes of the enterprise, the risk factors may be failures in the operation of services that ensure the uninterrupted functioning of the main and auxiliary production. For example, an accident or fire in a warehouse, failure (full or partial) of computing power in the information processing system, etc. The reason for the deterioration of the economic situation of an enterprise may be the lack of patent protection for the company's products and their manufacturing technology, which allowed competitors to master the production of similar products.
reproductive risks character are mainly associated with unreasonable investment activity of the enterprise and the processes of recruitment, training, retraining and advanced training of personnel.
Internal risk factors of managerial activity can be classified according to the level of decision-making: strategic, tactical or operational. At the level of acceptance by the management of the enterprise strategic decisions the following internal planning and marketing risk factors can be distinguished:
Wrong choice or inadequate formulation of the company's own goals;
Incorrect assessment of the strategic potential of the enterprise;
An erroneous forecast of the development of the economic environment external to the enterprise in the long term, etc.
The risk in decision-making at the tactical level is primarily associated with the possibility of distortion or partial loss of meaningful information in the transition from strategic planning to tactical. If, when developing specific tactical decisions, they were not tested for compliance with the chosen strategy of the enterprise, then such results, even if achieved, may be outside the main strategic direction of the enterprise and thus weaken its economic stability.
Factors of indirect impact include such a factor as insufficient quality of enterprise management. In turn, this may be due to the lack of such necessary qualities. management team like cohesion, experience joint work, people management skills, etc.
Obviously, at any level of decisions made, there may be both external and internal risk factors for a given enterprise. It can be assumed that for strategic decisions the number and role of external risk factors are much higher than for tactical or operational ones.
Many decisions in entrepreneurial activity have to be made under conditions of uncertainty, when it is necessary to choose a course of action from several possible options, the implementation of which is difficult to predict. If risks are not taken into account in economic plan, then they become a source of losses on the one hand, and profits on the other. You can choose solutions that contain less risk, but the resulting profit will also be less.
Dependence of profit on risk assessment
It can be seen from the graph that zero risk provides the lowest income (0; P1), and at the highest risk P = P2, the profit has the highest value P = P3 (P3 > P2 > P1). It is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty of the future in entrepreneurial activity, since it is an element of objective reality. Risk is inherent in entrepreneurship and is an integral part of its economic life. The principal decision on the adoption of a risky project depends for the entrepreneur making the decision on his preferences between the expected return (profitability) of the funds invested in this project and their reliability, which in turn is understood as risk-free, the likelihood of income. These preferences of the entrepreneur are usually reflected in the so-called map of his preferences between the expected commercial efficiency of invested funds, that is, profitability, profitability and their risk. This map also involves taking into account several levels of utility for the entrepreneur. Figure 3.2. given general form similar preference map.
Risk Preference Map
environment entrepreneurial risk profit
The curves on the preference map have a positive slope. The curves depicted in the figure are called “curves of equal preferences” or “indifference curves”, since each of them reflects with its points equally preferred for the entrepreneur at a given level of his satisfaction a pair of expected efficiency and riskiness of the decision. There can be several acceptable levels of satisfaction (utility). There are three of them in the figure, of which the lowest of all acceptable levels is F1, the highest is F3. The F1 level is lower than the F2 level, so with the same expected profitability of the solution in the first case (for F1), the risk value R3 is greater than the risk R1 in the second case (for F3). The combination of the expected profitability of the solution and its riskiness, corresponding to one of the points of the curve of equal preferences for level F3, then turns out to be due to the higher expected return on investments in this decision(albeit at greater risk) more attractive to the entrepreneur, corresponds to a higher level of utility for him. The entrepreneur's preference map should be built for him either by himself or with the help of third-party experts, built empirically, that is, based on the processing of data from the analysis of decisions that were made earlier.
However, for further consideration of entrepreneurial risk, first of all, it is necessary to define the initial, basic concept of “risk”.
A. Algin defines risk as an activity or action to "remove uncertainty". B. Reisberg defines risk as "damage, possible loss", thus adhering to the classical theory of entrepreneurial risk.
The analysis of numerous definitions of risk makes it possible to identify the main points that are characteristic of a risky situation, such as:
the random nature of the event, which determines which of the possible outcomes is realized in practice;
availability of alternative solutions;
outcome probabilities and expected outcomes are known or can be determined;
the likelihood of losses;
the likelihood of additional profits.
Thus, the category "risk" can be defined as the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or shortfall in income compared to their expected value, focused on the rational use of resources in this type of business activity. In other words, risk is the threat that the entrepreneur will incur losses in the form of additional expenses or receive income below those he expected.
Although the consequences of risk most often manifest themselves in the form of financial losses or the inability to obtain the expected profit, however, the risk is not only undesirable results. decisions taken. With certain options for entrepreneurial projects, there is not only the danger of not achieving the intended result, but also the likelihood of exceeding the expected profit. This is the entrepreneurial risk, which is characterized by a combination of the possibility of achieving both undesirable and especially favorable deviations from the planned results.
Entrepreneurial refers to the risk arising from any type of entrepreneurial activity related to the production of products, goods and services, their sale; commodity-money and financial transactions; commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
Purpose of the lecture: Assess and disclose the essence of entrepreneurial (economic) risk
Lecture questions:
1. The essence of entrepreneurial (economic) risk. Types of risks and losses, their classification.
2. Assessment of business risks.
3. Business risk management
1. The implementation of entrepreneurial activity due to the uncertainty of economic situations and the volatility of the economic environment is to some extent risky. In this regard, there is uncertainty in obtaining the expected end result.
The behavior of an entrepreneur within the framework of economic freedoms provided by market relations is realized through a competitive strategy. In this case, the main task is not only to search for and consolidate goods and services on the market, but also to resist the actions of competing entrepreneurs who are prone to ousting the opponent from the market. Consequently, this circumstance, together with losses of various kinds in the course of production and economic activities, leads to the fact that the risk becomes an integral part of the financial and commercial operations of the enterprise. Therefore, it must be foreseen, trying to reduce it to the minimum possible value.
Carrying out production and economic activities, the enterprise is forced to study the risk arising from the production, purchase, sale of products, pursuing the goal of not compensating for losses from the risk, but also preventing damage.
Entrepreneurial risk – the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or a shortfall in income of the expected value compared to those calculated based on the potential capabilities of the enterprise.
Risks are classified according to different criteria (classification features):
- for reasons of occurrence;
– by functional types and branches of business;
– according to the possibility of insurance, the level of admissibility, etc.
In each case, depending on the goal, one or another classification is used. For clarity, the types of entrepreneurial risks can be presented in Table 1.
Table 1– Risk classification
Production risk associated with the production of products, goods and services, with the implementation of any types of production activities. Main reasons production risk are forced interruptions in production; failure of production assets; the loss working capital; untimely delivery of equipment, raw materials, etc.; production risk associated with the possibility of a company failing to fulfill its obligations under a contract or agreement with a customer.
financial risk arises in the sphere of relations between an entrepreneur and banks and other financial institutions. The reasons for financial risk are the high ratio of borrowed and own funds, dependence on creditors, the passivity of capital, the simultaneous placement of large funds in one project; financial (credit) risk , associated with the possibility of a firm failing to fulfill its financial obligations to an investor as a result of using debt to finance the firm's activities.
Commercial risk arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the entrepreneur. Reasons for commercial risk may be unexpected changes in market conditions, conditions commercial activities and etc.
There are also certain types of risks to which entrepreneurial firms may be exposed at different stages of their activities, such as:
– legal risk associated with poor quality of legislative acts and unexpected changes in legislation;
– investment risk caused by poor-quality study of feasibility studies, an unforeseen increase in the cost of the project, tightening of laws on environmental protection; and is also associated with the possible depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio, consisting of both own securities and acquired ones;
– market risk, associated with possible fluctuations in market interest rates, both of its own national currency and foreign exchange rates;
– insurance risk associated with the formation of the insurance fund, the management of the latter, as well as its own property, cash and personnel;
– innovation risk arises from uncertainties in this area (starting from the development of an idea, its implementation in a product or technology, and ending with the implementation of the corresponding product on the market).
Losses from risk in entrepreneurial activity are divided into material, labor, financial, time losses, special types of losses.
Material losses - these are costs not provided for by the project or direct losses of material objects in kind (buildings, structures, products, semi-finished products, materials, raw materials, components).
Labor losses - loss of working time caused by accidental or unforeseen circumstances; the use of time norms instead of technically justified ones (the unit of measurement is “man-hour” or “man-day of working time”).
Financial losses - arise as a result of direct monetary damage (payments not provided for by the entrepreneurial project, fines, payments for overdue loans, additional taxes, loss Money or securities). They can also be the result of non-receipt or shortage of money from the sources provided for by the project, non-repayment of debts, etc.
Waste of time arise in the event that the process of entrepreneurial activity is slower than that envisaged by the project (measured in hours, days, decades, months, etc.).
To the number special types of losses include: losses associated with damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur and other adverse social and moral and psychological factors. A special group of special types of losses are losses from the impact of unforeseen factors of a political nature. They bring confusion into the existing economic conditions of people's lives, disrupt the rhythm of production and economic activity, generate increased costs and reduce income.
2. In the process of risk management, the key point is the stage of its assessment, at which it is calculated and affects the results of business activities.
Risk assessment- this is a quantitative or qualitative determination of the magnitude (degree) of risk. There are no universal methods for assessing risk. All of them have their advantages and disadvantages and are far from ideal. The choice of any particular method of evaluation depends on the specific situation and the personality of the entrepreneur. It is advisable to conduct a qualitative-quantitative, i.e. combined, business risk assessment. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of entrepreneurial risk is shown in Figure 1.
Picture 1 -Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment
Qualitative assessment represents the identification of all possible risks. A qualitative assessment can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work during which the risk arises.
When conducting a risk assessment, it is necessary to determine degree of risk. The risk may be:
– allowable - there is a threat of complete loss of income from the implementation of the planned facility;
– critical - non-receipt of not only income, but also coverage of losses at the expense of the entrepreneur’s funds;
– catastrophic possible loss of capital, property and bankruptcy of the entrepreneur.
Quantification aims to quantify the risks, conduct their analysis and comparison. Quantitative risk assessment uses various methods. Various methods are used in quantification. Currently the most common are:
Sometimes a qualitative and quantitative assessment is carried out on the basis of an analysis of the influence of internal and external factors: an element-by-element assessment is carried out specific gravity their influence on the work of this enterprise and its monetary value is determined. This method is quite laborious in quantitative analysis, but in qualitative analysis bears undeniable results.
AT absolute terms risk can be determined by the size of possible losses in material (physical) or cost (monetary) terms.
AT relative terms risk is defined as the sum of possible losses related to a certain base, in the form of which it is most convenient to take either the total cost of resources for a given type of entrepreneurial activity, or the expected income.
Qualitative risk assessment can be performed using a statistical method. Main Tools this method ratings– mean expected value, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation.
Variation- change in quantitative indicators when moving from one result option to another.
Dispersion - a measure of the deviation of an actual value from its mean value.
Thus, the degree of risk can be measured by two criteria: the average expected value, the volatility (variability) of the possible result.
Average expected value - this is the value of the result (event) that is associated with an uncertain situation. It is a weighted average of all possible outcomes, where the probability of each outcome is used as the frequency, or weight, of the corresponding value. Thus, the result that is supposedly expected is calculated.
Method expert assessments. This method is usually implemented by processing the opinions of experienced entrepreneurs and professionals. It differs from statistical only in the method of collecting information to build a risk curve.
The calculation-analytical method is based on the construction of a distribution curve for the probability of losses and the assessment of entrepreneurial risk indicators.
3. Since entrepreneurial activity is often associated with the possibility of negative consequences, adverse results, there is a need to develop methods and means that reduce the likelihood of their occurrence or localize negative consequences. This kind of action in economics is called risk management system. it special kind activities aimed at mitigating the impact of risk on the final results of the entrepreneurial firm.
The concept of risk management includes three main positions:
1) Identification of the consequences of the entrepreneur's activities in a risk situation;
2) The ability to respond to the possible negative consequences of this activity;
3) Development and implementation of measures by which the negative results of the actions taken can be neutralized or compensated.
Risk management means search for compromise when making decisions. High-quality risk management increases the chances of an entrepreneurial firm to succeed in the long term, significantly reduces the risk of deterioration in its financial condition.
Table 2 presents a classification of the main methods of enterprise risk management. Some of the listed methods guarantee risk reduction in the future, some - immediately. Some methods may be characterized as measures of direct impact on the magnitude and probability of risk realization, others - as measures of indirect (indirect) impact.
Table 2 -Classification of risk management methods
| Risk Prevention Methods | Avoidance Methods risk | Risk localization methods | Risk Diversification Methods | Methods to reduce the economic consequences of risk |
| Acquisition of the necessary information about the risk Strategic planning of the enterprise's activities Active, targeted marketing Forecasting the development of the external environment Staff training and instruction Implementation of preventive measures (emergency prevention, fire fighting, etc.) | Refusal from unreliable partners Search for guarantors Refusal from risky projects Conservation of property Dismissal of incompetent workers | Creation of subsidiaries for the implementation of risky projects Creation of special (with segregated balance sheet) structural divisions Conclusion of agreements on joint activities for the implementation of risky projects | Distribution of risks between participants in individual projects (co-executors) Diversification of sales and supplies Diversification of investments Diversification of activities Distribution of risk over time | Limiting Self-insurance (stocking and reservation) Mutual insurance Insurance |
In Kazakhstan's economic practice, the methods of avoiding and localizing risk are the most common. These methods are used by leaders of many manufacturing enterprises, who refuse the services of unreliable intermediaries, try not to expand the circle of partners, work only with reliable counterparties.
Since many risk management methods are not only complementary, but also alternative, based on a specific situation, each enterprise must make the most economically justified choice between them.
Questions for self-control:
1. Contractual relations of entrepreneurs with business partners
2. Anti-crisis development strategy for small and medium-sized businesses
1. Kruglova N. Yu. Fundamentals of business (entrepreneurship): textbook / N. Yu. Kruglov. – M.: KNORUS, 2010. – 544 p.
2. Lapusta M. G. Entrepreneurship: textbook - M.: INFRA-M, 2013. -384 p.
3. Nabatnikov V.M. Organization of entrepreneurial activity. Textbook / V.M. Nabatnikov. - Rostov-na D.: Phoenix, 2011 - 256 p.
Topic 4. Business - planning in the entrepreneurial system
activities
Purpose of the lecture: Develop an enterprise planning process
Lecture questions:
1. Business planning process
2. Business plan - a plan for the implementation of entrepreneurial projects
3. Methodology for compiling and developing a business plan
1. Planning in entrepreneurial activity should be seen as a process of early adoption of an interconnected set of decisions through which common decisions are implemented in a situation where it is assumed that the desired state in the future is unlikely to occur unless special measures are taken, and by taking appropriate measures, one can increase the likelihood of a favorable outcome.
Planning- this is an activity that consists in the development and practical implementation of plans that determine the future state of the economic system of the enterprise.
From the point of view of the enterprise, at the microeconomic level, planning - it is a way of carrying out an action based on conscious, volitional decisions of the subjects of microeconomics, a mechanism that replaces prices and the market.
There are two planning forms company activities:
- planning the company's activities in the market;
- internal planning.
As a rule, these aspects of planning are interrelated.
It should be noted that truly planning can be rational only when the relationship of a firm with counterparties in the market is not random and one-time, but becomes stable and long-term.
– Enterprise planning allows:
- to carry out a clear coordination of the ongoing efforts to achieve the goals;
- Encourage managers to more specifically define their goals and ways to achieve them;
- to determine the performance indicators of the company, necessary for subsequent control;
- prepare the enterprise for sudden changes in market conditions;
- clearly articulate the duties and responsibilities of all managers of the firm.
Modern market relations make their changes not only in the concept of "planning", but also specify the principles, goals, methods and types of planning.
Like every managerial activity planning must be based on certain principles. It is the principles that determine the structure and content of the planning system, the nature of the planning process.
Principles:
1) Continuity. It is necessary to constantly plan and adjust plans, as goals and situations can change.
2) Coordination and integration. Coordination covers the interaction of all organizational units of the same level, and integration is necessary for the coherence of actions between units of different levels.
3) Consistency. The enterprise in the external environment should be taken into account in the complex.
4) Scientific. It is necessary to apply scientific methods in planning
Each businessman, starting his activity, must clearly understand what awaits him in the near future, namely: what will be his need for financial, material, labor and intellectual resources, what are the sources of their acquisition, and also be able to clearly calculate the efficiency of the use of resources during the operation of the firm (enterprise).
That is, entrepreneurs will not be able to succeed if they do not clearly and effectively plan their activities, constantly collect and accumulate information as a state target markets, the position of competitors on them, and about their own prospects and opportunities.
AT last years the concept of "business plan" is rapidly being introduced into the economic life of entrepreneurial structures. Such a document, as a rule, is prepared to attract external sources of financing, investments: loans financial resources from the creditor (bank and other loans, bonded loans), attracted financial resources of the investor (from the sale of shares, shares and other contributions), budgetary investment allocations. There is another function of the business plan - planning the entire economic activity of the company. Ideally, the same business plan should perform both of these functions, but in practice, a business plan focused on obtaining external financing and a business plan for internal use have significant differences, both in structure and content.
Business plan- this is a plan for the implementation of business operations, company actions, containing information about the company, product, its production, sales markets, marketing, organization of operations and their effectiveness.
The purpose of developing a business plan- plan the economic activity of the company for the near and distant periods in accordance with the needs of the market and the possibilities of obtaining the necessary resources.
– The objectives of the business plan are:
- formulation of long-term and short-term goals of the company, strategies and tactics for achieving them;
- determination of specific areas of activity of the company, target markets and the place of the company in these markets;
- the choice of assortment and the determination of indicators of goods and services that will be offered by the company to consumers;
- assessment of production and non-production costs;
– determination of the composition of marketing activities for market research, sales promotion, pricing, etc.;
- grade financial position firms and the correspondence of the available financial and material resources to the possibilities of achieving the set goals, etc.
– The business plan performs the following main functions , namely:
is a tool by which an entrepreneur can
evaluate the actual results of activities for a certain period;
– can be used to develop the concept of doing business in the future;
– is a tool for acquiring financial resources;
- is a tool for implementing the strategy of the enterprise.
Thus, the business plan allows you to analyze the possibilities of the enterprise and justify the choice of priority goals, i.e. determine the strategy of the company.
Types of business plans.
Based on the market situation and the purpose of drawing up, business plans may be different.
They are developed in different modifications depending on the purpose:
– by business lines(products, works, services, technical solutions);
– by enterprise in general (new or existing).
A business plan can be aimed at both the development of an enterprise and its financial recovery. The activities of the entire enterprise or its individual division can also be planned.
The business plan should be prepared taking into account following recommendations:
1) Brevity - a summary of the most important for each section of the business plan.
2) Accessibility in presentation and understanding - The business plan should be understandable to a wide range of people.
3) Not overloaded with technical details.
4) Persuasiveness, conciseness, awakening the partner's interest.
5) Compliance with certain standards - the business plan should be accepted by the reader and convenient in terms of the method of its preparation.
The structure of the business plan, which is a fairly complex document, is important. Sections of the business plan should cover all aspects of the enterprise. Although outwardly business plans may differ from each other, the composition of their sections, in essence, remains practically the same, although the form may vary depending on the type of problem being solved.
In accordance with the UNIDO international methodology for a business plan The following indicators and forms of input information are required:
1. investment costs;
2. production and sales program;
3. average number of employees;
4. current costs for the total output:
- material costs;
- labor costs and social security contributions;
– maintenance and repair of equipment and vehicles;
– administrative overheads;
- the cost of selling products;
5. structure of total costs by types of products;
6. working capital needs;
7. sources of financing - share capital; loans, etc.
Such indicators and forms of information are suitable when using any of the accepted systems for modeling investment projects.
As a rule, a business plan consists of the following sections:
1) Concept, review, summary.
2) Current situation and brief information about the enterprise.
3) Characteristics of the business object.
4) Market research and analysis.
5) Organizational plan.
6) Production plan.
7) Marketing plan.
8) Potential risks.
9) Financial plan.
10) Applications.
The preparation of a business plan begins with the preparation of a title page, which should provide information about where, when and by whom this document was drawn up. The name of the project is also indicated here, which should clearly and concisely formulate the idea embodied in the business plan.
After the title page, there should be a table of contents that reflects the structure of the business plan. This is the nomenclature of sections or paragraphs.
Table 1 -The main sections of the business plan and the content of each section
| Business plan sections | Contents of the business plan section |
| Concept, overview, summary | This is a concise, quick-read summary of information about the intended business and the goals that the enterprise sets for itself, starting a business or developing an existing one. In fact, the concept is a shortened version of the business plan itself. The summary should reflect the following main points: - business opportunities; business attractiveness; importance for the enterprise and the region; - necessary financial resources (own or borrowed); - payback period of the project; - possible term of repayment of borrowed funds; - investment conditions; - expected profit and its distribution. The order of presentation of the concept is quite free, but it must begin with main goal the proposed business (usually to generate income) and the purpose of the business plan being developed. The business concept (summary) is drawn up at the end of writing a business plan, but is at the beginning. |
| Current situation and brief information about the enterprise | In the section describing situation at present and giving brief information about the enterprise, the following points are reflected: - the main events that influenced the emergence of ideas for the business plan; - the main circumstances and problems facing managers; the state of the market and the position to be achieved. Further, in a concise form, basic information about the enterprise is given - the date of foundation, legal form, founders, legal address, etc. |
| Characteristics of the business object | In this section, it is necessary to note the focus of the business plan (products, works, services, creation of a new enterprise, development of an existing one, financial recovery). Also here it is necessary to note the importance of the product for consumers, its uniqueness. It is also desirable to characterize the functionality and features of the product. The section ends with a description of the key factors that should determine the success of the proposed business, etc. |
| Market research and analysis | In this section, it is desirable to determine the priorities that guide the consumer when buying: quality, price, time and accuracy of delivery, after-sales service, etc. It is necessary to segment the market, determine the size and capacity of markets for the company's products. It is necessary to analyze how quickly products and services will establish themselves on the market and justify the possibility of its further expansion, as well as the main factors influencing this. Tracking and evaluating competitors is very important. It is necessary to identify and analyze their strengths and weak sides. It is necessary to determine the possible volume of sales in physical and monetary terms, etc. |
| organizational plan | Description of the legal form, organizational structure management, characteristics of the management team, work with personnel, material and technical security of management. It must clearly define job descriptions top managers, their role in management process, as well as how the interaction of services and departments will be carried out, etc. |
| Production plan | When writing it, one should take into account: supply (providing); technological cycle; equipment service; possibilities for improving technology. The production plan reflects the production process. If individual operations are outsourced to a subcontractor, this should be shown. It is advisable to present the production process with an indication of its structure in terms of labor intensity. It is necessary to reflect the need for production premises and their area, as well as the production area of the enterprise, it is necessary to indicate the need for additional equipment and material resources, etc. |
| marketing plan | The program of comprehensive market research to be carried out during the implementation of the project: determination of the total volume and range of products sold, broken down by project implementation periods, areas for improving products, taking into account the passage of stages of its life cycle, packaging requirements, appearance; justification pricing policy, sales planning, its stimulation; planning advertising campaign, service, marketing control system, etc. |
| Potential risks | This section is especially important, since the risk factor has a great impact on the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. This should be a summary of all possible problems, which may complicate the implementation of the project, the definition of a set of preventive measures, scenarios of behavior in the event of adverse events, etc. |
| Financial plan | Target financial plan consists in determining the effectiveness of the proposed business: a consolidated balance sheet of income and expenses, a plan for cash receipts and expenses, a balance sheet plan at the end of the year in its traditional form, a plan for the sources and use of funds, etc. |
| Applications | Documents used in the preparation |
Questions for self-control:
1. Features in the development of a business plan
2. The role of competition in entrepreneurial activity
1. Fundamentals of entrepreneurship: tutorial/ IN AND. Brunova [and others]; ed. IN AND. Brunova; SPbGASU. - St. Petersburg, 2010. - 106 p.
2. Pereverzev M.P. Entrepreneurship and business: Textbook / M. P. Pereverzev, A. M. Luneva; ed. M.P. Pereverzeva. - M.: INFRA-M, 2013. - 176 p.
3. Entrepreneurship: textbook. /V.Ya. Gorfinkel, V.B. Polyak, V.A. Shvandar, M: UNITY - DANA, 2009 (Golden Fund of Russian textbooks).
In entrepreneurial activity, various types of risk: industrial, ecological, investment, credit, technical, commercial, financial, political.
Table 7 - a brief description of risks
| View | Subspecies | Characteristic | |
| CLEAN | natural-natural | Risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature | |
| Environmental | Associated with damage to the environment: pollution, destruction of biological species | ||
| Political | Associated with the political situation in the country and state intervention in the normal course of production and trade processes | ||
| Social | Customs, traditions, mentality of the population of the country | ||
| SPECULATIVE | Property | Risks associated with the possibility of loss of property due to theft, sabotage, negligence, extortion, industrial accidents | |
| Production | Risks associated with loss from production shutdown due to destruction and damage to fixed and working assets | ||
| Operating | Transport | Associated with the transportation of goods: cargo - causing damage to the transported cargo; Casco - causing damage to the vehicle | |
| Trading | Associated with losses due to delayed payments, refusal to pay, non-delivery of goods. | ||
| Informational | Damage related to information leakage, inaccuracies or lack of information | ||
| Organizational | Losses due to inefficient organization of business, incorrect selection of employees, insufficient competence | ||
| Financial risks | Cash | Inflationary risk - cash incomes depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they grow. Currency risk - the danger of currency losses with a change in the exchange rate. Liquidity risk - associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and consumer value | |
| Investment | Loss of profit risk - non-receipt of profit as a result of non-implementation of an event. Risks of reduced profitability - as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends, the risk of non-payment of debt by the borrower. Risks of direct financial losses - losses from exchange transactions, wrong choice of the type of capital investment, risk of bankruptcy |
In business activities, such types of risks:
1) Industrial risk - the risk of damage to the company and third parties due to disruption of the normal course of the production process: the risk of damage or loss production equipment and transport, the destruction of buildings and structures as a result of the influence of such external factors as the forces of nature and malicious acts. The most common and serious is the risk of failure of machinery and equipment, the occurrence of an emergency.
This can happen in industrial facilities as a result of events:
- natural character(earthquake, flood, landslide, hurricane, tornado, lightning strike, storm, volcanic eruption, etc.);
- technogenic nature(wear and tear of buildings, structures, machinery and equipment, errors in their design or installation, malicious acts, personnel errors, damage to equipment during construction and repair work, falling aircraft etc.);
- mixed(violations of the natural balance as a result of man-made activities, for example, the occurrence of an oil and gas fountain during exploratory drilling of wells).
2) Environmental risk - the likelihood of civil liability for causing damage to the environment, as well as a threat to the life and health of third parties. They can arise during the construction and operation of production facilities and are an integral part of industrial risk. Environmental damage is expressed in the form of pollution or destruction of forest, water, air and land resources (for example, as a result of a fire or construction works), as well as in the form of damage to the biosphere and agricultural land.
3) Investment risk is associated with the possibility of shortfall or loss of profit during the implementation of investment projects. In this case, the object of risk is the property interests of the person investing his funds, i.e. investor.
The group of investment risks includes the following subspecies:
- risk of lost profits - this is the risk of indirect financial damage (loss of profit) as a result of failure to implement any event (insurance, investment).
- the risk of a decrease in profitability arises as a result of a decrease in the size of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, deposits and loans.
4) Credit risk. In this case, there are risks associated with the possible non-repayment of the loan amount and interest on it, i.e. credit risks. Non-return can occur for various reasons: non-completion of construction, changes in the market and general economic situation, insufficient marketing study of the investment project, emergency events.
For the lender, not only the fact of repayment of the loan amount and interest is important, but also the timing of repayment. The delay in terms leads to an actual decrease in the profitability of the issued loan, and, taking into account inflation and lost profits, it also leads to losses. Thus, for the creditor there is a risk of direct losses in case of non-repayment of the loan amount or part of it, and the risk of indirect losses associated with a delay in paying the principal and interest on it.
5) Technical risks accompany the construction of new facilities and their further operation. Among them are construction and installation and operational. Technical risks can be an integral part of industrial, business and investment risks.
Construction and installation risks include the following:
Loss or damage to building materials and equipment due to adverse events - natural disasters, explosions, fires, malicious acts, etc.;
Violations of the functioning of the object due to errors in the design and installation;
Causing physical damage to personnel involved in the construction of the facility.
6) Commercial risks. Distinguish between internal and external commercial risks. External ones are connected with infliction of losses and non-receipt by the entrepreneur of the expected profit, due to violation of their obligations by counterparties, or due to other circumstances beyond their control. Internal depend on the ability of the entrepreneur to organize production, marketing of products (sale of goods), etc.
Commercial risk can be classified according to a number of criteria. Irreducible risk can be divided into compensated and uncompensated. Compensable will be one that cannot be reduced, but can be assessed and compensated through measures such as, for example, a price premium.
According to the uniqueness of the action of risk factors, risks are divided into static and dynamic. Static Risk- this is the risk of loss of real assets due to damage to property, as well as loss of income due to the incapacity of the organization. This risk can only lead to a negative or zero result. Dynamic Risk- the risk of unforeseen changes in the value of fixed capital due to the adoption of commercial management decisions. Such changes can lead to both losses and gains.
1) Financial risks. Financial risks can be considered as a special group of risks within a wide range of (commercial) entrepreneurial risks. Financial risks arise in the process of managing the finances of an enterprise. The most common are currency, interest and portfolio risks.
Under currency risks is understood as the probability of losses from changes in exchange rates in the process of foreign economic, investment activities in other countries, as well as when receiving export credits. Under interest rate risks is understood as the probability of incurring losses in the event of a change in interest rates on financial resources.Portfolio risks show the influence of various macro- and microeconomic factors on the assets of an entrepreneur or investor. The portfolio of assets may consist of stocks and bonds of enterprises, government securities, term liabilities, cash, insurance policies, real estate, etc.
8) Country risks arise when entrepreneurs and investors carry out their activities on the territory of foreign states. Business income may decrease in the event of an unfavorable change in the political or economic situation in the country.
9) Political risks are the most important component of country risks. Their essence lies in the possibility of a shortfall in income or loss of property of a foreign entrepreneur or investor due to changes in the socio-political situation in the country (changes in legislation that prevent the execution of international contracts or the repatriation of foreign exchange earnings; changes in the legal framework that make it difficult to carry out entrepreneurial activities, etc.)
Most common subspecies of entrepreneurial risk :
- Transport risks associated with the transportation of goods by any transport, there are two types: cargo - damage to the cargo, and Casco - causing damage to the vehicle.
- Trading risks associated with losses due to delayed payments, refusal to pay, non-delivery, short delivery of goods, with the quality of goods.
- Information risks are related to damage due to the leakage of commercial information intended for sale (removal of protection from programs, theft and unauthorized access to databases, leakage of "know-how"), leakage of current business information and inaccuracies in the use of information or its absence.
- Organizational risks associated with losses due to inefficient organization of business management, incorrect selection of employees, abuse of office by employees or insufficient competence to perform assigned tasks.
- Property risks associated with the probability of loss of property of an economic entity due to theft, sabotage, extortion, negligence, industrial accidents.
- Inflation risk- money incomes depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they grow.
- Deflationary risk- a fall in the price level worsens the economic conditions of entrepreneurship and leads to a decrease in income.
- Currency risks represent a risk of currency losses associated with changes in the exchange rate during foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions.
Search and apply new methods of business management;
Maintain constant control over the business.
In any decision that is made in business, there is a risk. Therefore, anyone who is going to choose entrepreneurship as their profession must first determine their attitude towards risk.
This will allow you to avoid many mistakes even when choosing a field of activity and a future project: either it will be quite risky, but with significant growth potential, or you should limit your activities to certain types of small businesses, characterized by greater stability and reliability. Currently, in order to find out which group you belong to in relation to risk, there is a significant set of different tests and it is enough a large number of specialist consultants.
Any business activity is subject to risks. Risk is usually understood as the potential (possible) danger of losses that arise from the specifics of certain natural phenomena or human activities. Entrepreneurial risk has an objective basis due to the uncertainty of the external environment in relation to the entrepreneur (company). The main elements of the external environment include economic, political, social, financial and credit and production and economic conditions within which the company operates and to which it must constantly adapt. The uncertainty of the situation is characterized by the fact that, ultimately, it depends on a number of factors, partners and individuals whose behavior cannot always be accurately predicted or predicted (natural disasters, socio-political upheavals, changes in market conditions, changes in consumer demand and preferences, cardinal changes as a result of scientific and technological progress, etc.).
Entrepreneurial risk is a risk arising from any type of business activity related to the production of products, the sale of goods and the provision of services; commodity-money and financial transactions; commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
Entrepreneurial risk can be characterized as a danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or a shortfall in income in comparison with their expected (forecast) value.
The difficulty of classifying entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. Companies are exposed to risk both in their current, operational activities, and in their strategic, long-term activities. There are certain categories of risks that affect all types of business activities, but at the same time, there are specific risks that affect only companies that operate in certain areas of activity. For example, specific risks are inherent in production, trading,.
Based on the sources of occurrence, all entrepreneurial risks can be divided into internal and external. Internal risks arise directly in the company itself: risks generated by personnel (low level of qualification, incompetence, abuse); inefficient management, miscalculations in strategic planning etc. To external risks include risks that are beyond the control of the company, i.e. the company cannot influence them, but can only foresee: natural disasters, strikes, hostilities, changes in legislation and taxation systems, nationalization, the introduction of restrictions on the financial and credit market, etc.
According to the time of exposure, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into short-term and permanent ones. Short term risks exist for a certain period of time and, in principle, can be clearly defined. For example, the risk of payment for delivered goods exists until the buyer counterparty settles. Permanent risks continuously threaten the business of a company in a particular geographic region or area of business, for example, for farming in a particular geographic region, there is always a risk of unfavorable natural conditions (frosts, drought, heavy rains, etc.) that have a negative impact on crop yields.
Entrepreneurial risk can also be divided into industrial, commercial and financial.
Linked directly to economic activity an enterprise focused on obtaining maximum profit by meeting the needs and requests of customers according to market requirements.
In production activities industrial enterprise the following risks can be identified:
- the risk of complete or partial shutdown of the enterprise due to failures in the supply of materials, components and other resources necessary to ensure the production;
- the risk of selling manufactured products (problems with sales);
- the risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for products shipped for sale;
- the risk of the buyer refusing to receive and paid for products or the risk of a return;
- the risk of disruption of concluded agreements for the provision of loans, investments or credits;
- associated with determining the price of products and services sold by the enterprise, as well as the risk in determining the price of the necessary means of production, used raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, labor and capital (in the form of interest rates on loans). Significant miscalculations in pricing can have catastrophic consequences for the enterprise, lead to a significant loss of market share, an increase in product balances (unsold products), etc. Price risk increases significantly under conditions
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