To the benefits of the fifth technological order from 1980. Technological order. Concept, characteristics, impact on economic growth. Product set for the "technical textiles" group

24.05.2020

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University

SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL WAY AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA (BRIEF REVIEW)

V. M. Averbukh

THE SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL SETUP AND PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIA (ABSTRACT)

The article describes the fragments of the economy and science condition in Russia, technological setups, long-range forecasts of innovational technologies for 2030. The aim is to enter the 6th technological setup in accordance with the materials of the Russian Academy of Science of2008 .

Key words: economy, export, technological setup, long-range forecast, the forecast period -2030.

The article considers: fragments of the state of the economy and science in Russia; technological structures; long-term forecasts innovative technologies for 2030; the goal is to enter the sixth technological order, based on the materials of the 2008 session of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Keywords Keywords: economy, export, technological structure, long-term forecast, forecasting period 2030.

UDC 681.513.54:681.578.25

The works of the outstanding domestic economist N. D. Kondratiev formulated the concept of cyclicity in the economy. This theory was further developed in the works of academicians D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev under the modern name "Technological way". Technological order (wave) - a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of development of production; in connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower ways to higher, progressive ones.

Currently, there are six technological modes (Fig. 1). The world is moving towards the sixth technological mode, is approaching it, is working on it. Russia is today mainly in the third, fourth and early stages of the fifth technological order. The latter include mainly enterprises of the high-tech military-industrial complex.

The third technological order - (1880-1940) is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital.

The fourth mode (1930-1990) is based on the further development of energy using oil and oil products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various kinds weapons, consumer goods. The emergence and spread of computers software products for them, radar. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Multinational and multinational companies emerged that invested directly in markets various countries.

The fifth order (1985-2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from scattered firms to single network major

and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close cooperation in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.

The sixth technological order will be characterized by the development of robotics, biotechnologies based on the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, integrated high-speed transport systems. Within the framework of the sixth technological order, flexible automation of production, space technologies, the production of structural materials with predetermined properties, the nuclear industry, air transportation will be further developed, nuclear energy will grow, natural gas consumption will be supplemented by the expansion of the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier, the application of renewable energy sources.

Rhythm snny tshyulogashsky * way" and generations of tinish

Figure 1. Technological modes

Thus, our country faces the most important and the hardest task- to carry out the transition to the sixth order (not having fully mastered the previous fifth) and to catch up with the advanced countries in this direction. This stage has already begun and will last 50-60 years. During this time, the world will move further to the seventh or even the eighth technological stage. And we need to take this into account in our long-term forecasts.

The future is laid in the past and present. Below are fragments of the current state of the economy and scientific research in Russia.

The current standard of living of the majority of the population of the Russian Federation is supported by exports, whose share in world GDP is less than 2%. Main export items: gas and oil (70%), primary (not processed) metals (15%), round (not processed) timber (10%). Everything else, including equipment, technology, weapons - less than 5%. The share of Russia in the world markets of high technologies barely reaches 0.2-0.3%.

A breakthrough is possible only through the creation of new science-intensive technologies, primarily for export. But it is known that the expenditure on scientific research in Russian Federation over the previous 18 years have decreased by more than five times and approached the level of developing countries. Russia today spends seven times less on science than Japan, and 20 times less than the United States. The number of researchers has more than halved; many now work abroad. The number of domestic publications is somewhat reduced, while, for example, in India and Brazil it is increasing sharply. Thus, in general, in terms of the level of development of high technologies, the country rolled back, according to the most conservative estimates, by 10-15 years ago, and in some areas even by 20.

It is possible to make a breakthrough in the development of the latest, competitive technologies by carrying out long-term forecasting and advanced planning scientific research and subsequent production of the latest technologies and products.

Figure 2. The share of manufacturers of high-tech products in the world (for work 5)

The President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev gave impetus to intensify forecasting developments by instructing the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 to urgently develop scientific and technical forecasts for the country's development for the long term - until 2030 in order to bring the country's economy out of that deeply unsatisfactory state of almost the entire situation affairs in the country: science, technology, economics. And most importantly, get out international market with high-tech developments.

In 2008, at the general meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences entitled "Scientific and technical forecast is the most important element of the development strategy of Russia", in his opening speech, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Yu. .» .

There are two reasons for activating scientific forecasting.

Academician A. Dynkin named the external cause. According to him, more than 70 countries are engaged in scientific and technical forecasting, including even Malaysia (28 million inhabitants, per capita income of 14 thousand dollars). In these countries, market opportunities for inventions and technologies are being studied (i.e., they are predicting application), and obstacles to moving the development into practice are identified. Our domestic business environment is openly hostile to innovation. Russia has chosen the wrong path - to acquire high technologies abroad, reducing investments in its own science to zero. According to academician A.D. Nekipelov, the internal reason is the need to move away from the fuel and raw material scenario of the country's development at an increasing pace, in connection with which the problem of technological forecasting has come to the fore.

At the session, 9 reports and 8 speeches were made on the subject under consideration. The adopted Decree of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences states: “... to consider work in the field of scientific and technological progress as one of the priority areas of activity of the Russian Academy of Sciences; approve the initiative of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the establishment of the Interdepartmental Coordination Council

RAS on socio-economic and scientific-technological forecasting; will apply to the Government of the Russian Federation with a proposal to create a unified system of state forecasting in order to determine on a scientific basis the priorities of the country's development.

The Coordinating Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for Forecasting was created under the leadership of Vice-President A.D. Nekipelov. The following 15 thematic sections have been formed:

1. Theories, methods and organizations of forecasting. 2. Modeling and information support. 3. Forecasting economic dynamics. 4. Forecasting the development of science, education and innovation. 5. Forecasting the development of nanotechnologies and new materials. 6. Forecasting biology and medical technology. 7. Forecasting information and communication technologies. 8. AIC forecasting. 9. Forecasting social and demographic development. 10. Forecasting nature management and ecology. 11. Forecasting the energy complex. 12. Forecasting engineering, defense industry and transport. 13. Forecasting socio-political processes and institutions. 14. Forecasting spatial development. 15. Forecasting the development of the world economy and international relations.

The Academy created the document "Forecast - 2030". On its basis, President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev announced the main vectors of the country's economic modernization for 20 years: 1) Leadership in the efficiency of production, transportation and use of energy. New types of fuel; 2) Development of nuclear technologies; 3) Improvement of information and global networks. supercomputers; four) space research will bring real benefits in all areas of activity of our citizens from travel to agriculture and industry; 5) A significant breakthrough in medical technology, diagnostics and medicines. Naturally - armament and development of agriculture.

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN

The main task is competitiveness and access to the international market in all directions, to increase the efficiency of products in the domestic market. Possibly mixed forecasts.

According to Yu. S. Osipov, “the forecast itself should be developed by the scientific community under the auspices of the state ... it is necessary to create a unified system of state forecasting, with the help of which the authorities could, on a scientific basis, determine priorities strategic development countries".

In his speech in 2009, D. A. Medvedev said: “The transition of the country to a higher level of civilization is possible. And it will be carried out by non-violent methods. Not coercion, but persuasion. Not suppression, but disclosure creativity every personality. Not intimidation, but interest. Not by confrontation, but by the convergence of the interests of the individual, society and the state ... intellectual resources, a "smart" economy that creates unique knowledge, the export of the latest technologies and products of innovative activity.

In our opinion, the interaction between long-term forecasting, business, regions, the state and developers (inventors) should be fixed by law, with the definition of the degree and form of participation, responsibility, etc. e. The end result should be the introduction of a product, technology to a foreign market. On the need for adoption legislative framework in the field of innovative development and forecasting was discussed at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Group within the framework of the IV National Congress “Priorities for Economic Development. Modernization and technological development of the Russian economy” (Moscow, October 8, 2009) .

D. A. Medvedev also spoke about political, economic and social tasks. He believes that “the inventor, innovator, scientist, teacher, entrepreneur will become the most respected people in society. Everyone will receive

necessary for fruitful activity. This program includes attracting foreign specialists, and benefits for researchers, and legislative and state support.”

Further, D. A. Medvedev said: “We will increase the efficiency of the social sphere in all areas, paying increased attention to the tasks of material and medical support for veterans and pensioners.” Actually, this is the main goal of long-term forecasting in order to create technologies of the sixth technological order.

Successful implementation of scientific and technical forecasts will make it possible to competently develop and then implement social forecasts for the country's development. After all, this is the main task of the country's development.

According to B. N. Kuzyka, a number of technologies of the sixth order already have a certain reserve. In Russia, as of 2008, there are breakthrough research and development in the field of critical technologies in almost all areas of the sixth technological order (Fig. 3) .

Thus, the research carried out in key areas of the sixth technological mode suggests that we have a chance. It is necessary to focus human, financial and organizational resources precisely on these priorities in order not to waste energy on developing those areas in which other countries have already gone too far relative to our level, and we will have to borrow world achievements.

But in order to successfully fulfill the forecasts and enter the sixth technological order, it is necessary, in our opinion, to fix the procedure for interaction between the Russian Academy of Sciences and business at the government level. RAS scientists determine the vectors (long-term forecasting), and corporations, the business community in the direction substantiates the general goal of research, is technical task for the development of a research, regulatory and organizational forecast, up to the industrial sale of products, indicating

1 technologies for the production of software 1 bioinformation technologies 1 technologies for creating intelligent navigation and control systems 1 technologies for processing, storing, transmitting and protecting information 1 technologies for distributed computing and systems 1 technologies for creating an electronic component base Rational environmental management 1 technologies for monitoring and forecasting the state of the atmosphere and hydrosphere 1 technologies for assessing resources and predicting the state of the lithosphere and biosphere > technologies for reducing the risk and mitigating the consequences of natural and man-made disasters > technologies for the processing and disposal of man-made formations and wastes > technologies for environmentally safe development of deposits and mining

Industry of nanosystems and materials 1 technologies for creating biocompatible materials 1 technologies for creating membranes and catalytic systems 1 technologies for creating and processing polymers and elastomers 1 technologies for creating and processing crystalline materials 1 technologies for creating and processing composite and ceramic materials 1 nanotechnologies and nanomaterials 1 technologies for mechatronics and contemplation of microsystem technology

Energy and energy saving 1 technologies of nuclear energy, nuclear fuel cycle, safe management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel > hydrogen energy technologies 1 technologies for creating energy-saving systems for the transportation, distribution and consumption of heat and electricity > technologies of new and renewable energy sources energy from organic raw materials

Living systems 1 bioengineering technologies 1 biocatalytic, biosynthetic and biosensor technologies 1 biomedical and veterinary technologies for life support and protection of humans and animals 1 genomic and post-genomic technologies for drug development 1 technologies for environmentally friendly resource-saving production and processing of agricultural raw materials and food 1 cellular technologies

Transportation and aerospace technologies > technologies for creating new generations of rocket and space, aviation and marine equipment > technologies for creating and controlling new types of transport systems 1 technologies for creating energy-efficient engines and propulsion systems for transport systems

The level of Russian developments corresponds to the world, and in some areas Russia is in the lead

Russian developments as a whole correspond to the world level * Russian developments as a whole are inferior to the world level and only in certain areas the level is comparable

Figure 3. The status of basic research and development in Russia in 2008 (based on work 5)

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possible deadlines for the implementation of individual stages. Accordingly, in their financial plans, firms should allocate up to 3-5% of the budget for forecasting, the development of scientific research, possibly together with the state. And all this work should be under the control of the forecasting sections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Government of Russia. This is not business enforcement, but rules, such as the Rules of the Road, binding on all participants. And for violation (non-allocation of appropriate funds, failure to meet deadlines, etc.), penalties should be applied. But there should also be incentives.

It should not be forgotten that such a large-scale forecasting - from the vectors of the country's development to specific technologies and their parameters needs effective organization information support of prognostic activity.

Moreover, when carrying out scientific and technical forecasting, one of the basic principles of forecasting should be observed - the relationship between scientific, technical and social forecasts.

However, in order to avoid distortions - forgetting the internal development of elements 4 and 5 of technological modes, it is necessary to

make forecasts in these areas as well.

Society, especially business society, must realize that without scientific forecasting, the further development of our country is simply not possible. And for successful forecasting, it is necessary to train forecasters. Since forecasting is also supposed to be carried out for the development of regions, federal universities simply have to create departments of futurology and train forecasters in technical, sociological and other areas, depending on the economy of the region. And in the management structure of regions, cities, there should be prognostic units. The issues of scientific forecasting in our country should be addressed at the state level by our entire community.

In conclusion, it should be noted that current schoolchildren will have to predict, create new technologies, and use them in the sixth technological mode, therefore, without reorienting the entire education system to new level technological life in everyday life, without a general rise in the cultural level of all strata of our society, technological progress will not give the expected effect.

LITERATURE

1. Averbukh V. M. An integrated approach to forecasting in a research and production association // All-Union scientific and practical conference “Efficiency of associations and improvement of self-financing. Plenary session of the section Problems of improving cost accounting in associations”: abstracts. - L., 1979. - S. 138-139.

2. Actual problems of innovative development. Selection of innovation priorities: Proceedings of the meeting of the Interdepartmental Working Group within the framework of the IV National Congress "Priorities for Economic Development, Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian Economy" (Moscow, October 8, 2009): inform. bulletin. Issue. 11. - M., 2010. - S. 7-21.

3. Glazyev S. Yu. Choice of the future. - M.: Algorithm, 2005.

4. N. D. Kondratiev, Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight: selected works. - M.: Economics, 2002.

5. Kuzyk B. N. Innovative development of Russia: scenario approach. (Posted by kig at Jan 5, 2910 - 13:56).

6. Lvov D.S. Effectiveness of management of technical development. M.: Economics, 1990.

7. Scientific session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Scientific and technological forecast - the most important element of the development strategy of Russia" // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2009. - T. 79. - No. 3. - S. 195-261

8. Forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the long term

perspective (until 2030) // Conceptual approaches, directions, forecast estimates and implementation conditions. - M.: RAN, 2008.

Averbukh Viktor Mikhailovich, GOU VPO

Stavropol State University, Doctor technical sciences, senior researcher

employee; head of the sector of scientific and technical information of the research department of SSU. Sphere of scientific interests - scientific and technical forecasting, scientific and technical information, history of science. [email protected]

I looked at Karaganov's website to read what he thinks about life there. And he writes about the sixth technological order, about which, they say, no one in Russia has ever heard of. Interested. It turned out that some people think about the seventh and this will be the time when psychology will merge in ecstasy with physics. I want everyone to live.

“The concept of the technological order was put into circulation by Russian economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev. According to the most common point of view, the technological order is a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development. In connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower ways to higher, progressive ones. The foundations of the subsequent technological order are born, as a rule, during the period of domination and flourishing of the previous or even the previous one. But until the previous way has exhausted all the possibilities of its development, the sprouts of the next way remain in the shadows and do not receive wide development. Conventionally, it is considered that the duration of the technological order is 50–60 years. To date, economists identify 5 existing ways and talk about the onset of the 6th.

The first way (1785–1835) arose on the basis of the development of technologies in the textile industry and the widespread use of water energy. Although at that time there were already steam engines, they were not yet widely used.

The second way (1830–1890) refers to the era of accelerated development of transport (construction railways, steam shipping) and the emergence of mechanical production in all industries based on the steam engine.

The third order (1880–1940) is based on use in the industrial production of electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.

The fourth order (1930–1990) appeared as a result of further development of energy using oil and oil products gas, communications, new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, radars appeared and became widespread. Atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Transnational and international companies that made direct investments in the markets of various countries.

The fifth mode (1985–2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.

And what is the seventh technological mode? And isn't it too early to talk about it, even if the sixth order has not yet begun? In our opinion, it's not too early. As mentioned above, the sprouts of the next technological order always arise in the depths of the previous or even previous previous order. Today, our society is dominated by the fifth order. The contours of the sixth order are already clearly visible to everyone. And the sprouts of the seventh order are just beginning to erupt, and therefore they are visible only to those who are closely involved in the technologies of the seventh order. How will the seventh order differ from all the previous ones?

In our opinion, the fundamental difference between the seventh technological mode and all the previous ones will be the inclusion of human consciousness in the production. It can be said differently: human consciousness will become the same productive force that science once became. Such technologies can be called cognitive (English conscious - consciousness). Until now, the production of any product does not require the direct participation of human consciousness: in order to press a button on the machine and put the tool into operation, muscular effort is required, and even then only at the very initial stage, and then the worker can only observe the work of the tool, without interfering with his work. But in order to carry out this process, it is first necessary to manufacture a machine and spend a huge amount of material, fuel, labor and time on this. However, when our consciousness itself becomes a productive force, we gain the ability to produce the product we need directly from the void, without resorting to to the preliminary manufacture of machinery or other equipment.

Full text here. But you can not read because bullshit.

Technological order- these are groups of technological sets connected with each other by the same type of technological chains and forming reproducible integrity.

The technical structure is characterized by:

the key factor

organizational and economic mechanism of regulation.

The concept of way of life means arrangement, the established order of organizing something.

AT modern concept the life cycle of the technological mode has 3 phases of development and is determined by a period of time of about 100 years. The first phase falls on its origin and formation in the economy of the previous technological order. The second phase is connected with the restructuring of the economy based on new technology production and corresponds to the period of dominance of the new technological order for about 50 years. The third phase falls on the withering away of an obsolete way of life and the emergence of the next.

S.Yu. Glazyev developed the theory of N. Kondratiev and identified five technological modes. However, unlike Kondratiev, Glazyev believes that the life cycle of the technological order has not two parts (upward and downward waves), but three phases and is determined by a period of 100 years.

Between I and II phases there is a period of monopoly. Individual organizations achieve an effective monopoly, develop, and receive high profits, because. are protected by intellectual and industrial property laws.

Directly innovations-products are considered primary. They appear in the depths of the economy of the previous technological order. In itself, the emergence of extraordinary innovations - products means the phase of the emergence of a new technological order. However, its slow development over a certain period of time is explained by the monopoly position of individual companies that were the first to apply product innovations. They are successfully developing, achieving high profits, as they are protected by intellectual property laws.

Russian scientists have described the fourth and fifth technological ways (see table).

Table - Chronology and characteristics of technological modes

	technological order number

Dominance period	1770-1830	1830-1880	1880-1930	1930-1980	From 1980 1990 to 2030-2040 (?)
Technology Leaders	UK, France, Belgium	UK, France, Belgium, Germany, USA	Germany, USA, UK, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands	USA, countries Western Europe, USSR, Canada, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland	Japan, USA, EU
The developed countries	German states, Netherlands	Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria-Hungary, Russia	Russia, Italy, Denmark, Austria-Hungary, Canada, Japan, Spain, Sweden	Brazil, Mexico, China, Taiwan, India	Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, Korea, Russia and the CIS-?
The core of the technological order	Textile industry, textile machinery, iron smelting, iron processing, canal construction, water engine	Steam engine, railway construction, transport, machine building, steamship building, coal, machine tool industry, ferrous metallurgy	Electrical engineering, heavy engineering, steel production and rolling, power lines, inorganic chemistry	Automotive, tractor construction, non-ferrous metallurgy, production of durable goods, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining	Electronics industry, computing, fiber optics, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, information Services
key factor	Textile machines	Steam engine, machine tools	Electric motor, steel	Internal combustion engine, petrochemistry	Microelectronic components
The emerging core of a new way of life	Steam engines, mechanical engineering	Steel, power industry, heavy engineering, inorganic chemistry	Automotive, organic chemistry, oil production and processing, non-ferrous metallurgy, road construction	Radars, pipeline construction, aircraft industry, gas production and processing	Biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry
Advantages of the technological order in comparison with the previous one	Mechanization and concentration of production in factories	Growth of scale and concentration of production based on the use of a steam engine	Increasing the flexibility of production based on the use of an electric motor, standardization of production, urbanization	Mass and serial production	Individualization of production and consumption, increasing the flexibility of production, overcoming environmental restrictions on energy and material consumption based on automated control systems, de-urbanization based on telecommunication technologies

Technologically developed countries have moved from the fourth to the fifth technological order, embarking on the path of deindustrialization of production. At the same time, for the products of the fourth technological mode, the models being produced are being modified, which is sufficient to ensure solvent demand in their countries to retain market niches abroad.

Fourth technological order(fourth wave) was formed on the basis of the development of energy using oil, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors and agricultural machinery, aircraft, various types of weapons. At this time, a computer appeared and software products for them began to be created. Atomic energy was used for peaceful and military purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology.

Fifth wave relies on advances in microeconomics, informatics, satellite communications, and genetic engineering. The globalization of the economy is observed, which is facilitated by the worldwide information network.

The nucleus of a new sixth technological order, including biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, the formation of networked business communities, etc. The origin of the 6th order dates back to the beginning of the 90s of the XX century within the framework of the 5th technological order.

In the domestic economy, for a number of objective reasons, the potential of the third and fourth technological modes has not yet been fully used. At the same time, they created high technology industries fifth technological order.

The dominance of the technological order over a long period of time is influenced by state support for new technologies, combined with the innovative activities of organizations. Process innovations improve product quality, help reduce production costs and ensure sustainable consumer demand in the goods market.

Thus, the main conclusion following from the study of the impact of innovation on the level of economic development is the conclusion about the uneven undulating innovation development. This conclusion is taken into account in the development and selection innovative strategies. Previously, forecasts used a trend approach based on extrapolation, which assumed the inertia of economic systems. Recognition of the cyclic nature of innovative development made it possible to explain its spasmodicity.

In the modern concept of the theory of innovation, it is customary to single out such concepts as product life cycle and production technology life cycle.

The product life cycle consists of four phases.

1. In the first phase, research and development is carried out to create an innovation-product. The phase ends with the transfer of the processed technical documentation to the production units of industrial organizations.

2. In the second phase, the technological development of large-scale production of a new product takes place, accompanied by a decrease in cost and an increase in profits.

Both the first and, in particular, the second phase are associated with significant risk investments, which are allocated on a repayable basis. The subsequent increase in the scale of production is accompanied by a decrease in costs and an increase in profits. This makes it possible to recoup investments in the first and second phases of the product life cycle.

3. A feature of the third phase is the stabilization of production volumes.

4. In the fourth phase, there is a gradual decrease in production and sales volumes.

The life cycle of production technology also consists of 4 phases:

1. The emergence of innovation-processes by conducting a wide range of R&D of a technological profile.

2. Development of innovation-processes at the facility.

3. Distribution and replication of new technology with repeated repetition at other sites.

4. Implementation of innovation-processes in stable, constantly functioning elements of objects (routinization).

Third technological order (1880–1930)

The main feature is the widespread use of electric motors and the rapid development of electrical engineering. At the same time there is a specialization of steam engines. The consumption of alternating current becomes dominant, and the construction of power plants has begun. Coal becomes the most important energy carrier during the period of domination of this way of life. At the same time, oil began to gain positions in the energy market, although it is worth noting that it became the leading energy carrier only at the fourth TU.

The chemical industry made great strides during this period. Of the many chemical and technological innovations, the following have gained importance: the ammonia process for obtaining soda, the production of sulfuric acid by the contact method, and electrochemical technology.

Fourth technological order (1930–1970)

By the 1940s technology, which is the basis of the third TR, has reached the limits of its development and improvement. Then the formation of the fourth TU began, which laid down new directions in the development of technology. The necessary material and technical base had already been formed by this time. For example, the following were created and mastered:

road infrastructure;
networks telephone connection;
new technologies and infrastructure for oil production;
technological processes in non-ferrous metallurgy.

During the period of the third TU, an internal combustion engine was introduced, which became one of the basic innovations of the fourth TU. At the same time, the formation of the automotive industry and the development of the first samples of caterpillar transport and special equipment, which formed the core of the fourth technical specification, took place. The industries that formed the core of the fourth TU include the chemical industry (primarily organic chemistry), the automotive industry, and the production of motorized weapons. This stage is characterized by a new machine base, comprehensive mechanization of production, automation of many basic technological processes, extensive use of skilled labor, and an increase in the specialization of production.

During the life cycle of the fourth TU, the outstripping development of the electric power industry continued. Oil becomes the leading energy carrier. Petroleum products are used as the main fuel for almost all types of transport - diesel locomotives, cars, airplanes, helicopters, rockets. Oil has also become an essential raw material for the chemical industry. With the expansion of the fourth TU, a global telecommunications system is being created based on telephone and radio communications. There has been a transition of the population to a new type of consumption, characterized by mass consumption of durable goods, synthetic goods.

Fifth technological order (1970–2010)

By the 1970s in developed countries, the fourth TR has reached the limits of its expansion. Since that time, the fifth TU begins to form, which now dominates in most developed countries. This mode can be defined as the mode of information and communication technologies. Microelectronics and software are key factors. Among the most important industries, the production of automation and telecommunications equipment should be singled out.

As already noted, most of the innovations of the new mode are formed in the phase of dominance of the previous mode. This is especially well demonstrated in this case. According to experts, about 80% of the main innovations of the fifth TU were introduced before 1984. And the earliest introduction dates back to 1947 - the period of the creation of the transistor. The first EMW appeared in 1949, the first operating system- in 1954, silicon transistor - in 1954. These inventions served as the foundation for the creation of the fifth TU. Simultaneously with the development of the semiconductor industry, there was rapid progress in the field of software - by the end of the 1950s. a family of first high-level programming languages appeared.

However, the spread of the new fifth technical standard was hindered by the underdevelopment of the leading industries, the formation of which, in turn, ran into limited demand, since new technologies were not yet sufficiently effective and were not accepted by existing institutions. The introduction of the microprocessor in 1971 was a turning point in the formation of the fifth technical specification and opened up new opportunities for rapid progress in all areas.

The invention of the microcomputer and the rapid progress that came with it software made information technology convenient, cheap and accessible for both industrial and non-industrial consumption. The driving branches of the information order have entered a phase of maturity.

The beginning of the fifth TU is associated with the development of new means of communication, digital networks, computer programs and genetic engineering. The fifth TU actively generates the creation and continuous improvement of both new machines and equipment (computers, numerical program control(CNC), robots, machining centers, various kinds of automata), and information systems (databases, local and integrated computing systems, information languages and information processing software). Among the leading industries of the fifth TU in the manufacturing industry, flexible automated production(GAP). Flexible Automation industrial production dramatically expands the variety of products. In addition, the fifth TU is characterized by the deurbanization of the population and the development of a new information and transport infrastructure associated with it. Free access of each person to global information networks, the development of global mass information systems, air transport radically change people's ideas about time and space. This, in turn, affects the structure of needs and motivation of people's behavior.

During the life cycle of the fifth technical standard, the role of natural gas and RES increases.

Sixth technological mode (2010–present)

Since the early 2000s in the bowels of the fifth TU, elements of the sixth TU began to appear more and more noticeably. Its key areas include biotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, CALS -technologies, global information networks and integrated high-speed transport systems, computer education, formation of networked business communities. These are the industries that are currently developing in the leading countries at a particularly rapid pace (sometimes from 20 to 100% per year).

A fusion of applied science and technology audit, modern centers competencies and Soviet experience will make it possible to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward. About what is missing for a breakthrough, the "Military-industrial courier" was told by the executive director of "Finval Engineering" Alexei Petrov and Commercial Director Aleksey Ivanin company.

The 90s greatly battered the domestic instrument and machine tool industry, and other advanced industries. The civil aviation industry ekes out a miserable existence.

But the engineering industry of the military-industrial complex remains the backbone of Russian economy. Its competitiveness, especially its growth rates, are due exclusively to high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors.

- The corporation was given the task of setting up the production of a large-scale facility, for example, resuming the production of the Tu-160. The first actions of her leadership?

– When it comes to creating production for a new product, the leaders of the corporation, first of all, are faced with the task of competently organizing pre-project work, carrying out technological training, choose the main production. It is clear that today none of the existing enterprises can produce such an aircraft. It is necessary to establish large-scale cooperation between factories. Considerable time has passed since the release of the last such machine, much has changed - enterprises participating in the production chain have closed or ended up abroad. Some of the technologies are most likely outdated, others are lost. First: you need to create a digital - 3D model of the product. A set of scanned drawings in a computer is the last century. We are talking about three-dimensional digital model assembled. So that you can see the requirements for any of the parts and the manufacturing technology of each. Second: to organize the study of the implementation of the task.

The creation of such a production is a long process, it can take several years. An important issue is the choice of technology, the selection of equipment, and its manufacture. It often happens that standard machines do not fit, you need to order them, develop and manufacture tooling, which in itself is a long and expensive process. This will be followed by the supply of equipment, commissioning, testing of technology on a specific product and after that delivery in accordance with all the parameters that were previously set. In addition, it is necessary to carefully plan industrial cooperation.

Where is your place in this chain?

– When the production program appears, then our work begins. It is impossible to develop technology for unknown purposes and to what extent. When we solve a problem, we necessarily take into account the possibilities of cooperation between enterprises, the presence of competence centers in the holding or plans for their creation. In accordance with this, we develop a production technology, select equipment, tooling and tools, and develop requirements for personnel.

To carry out such a large-scale project, you need a structure that can guarantee the execution of the contract, when the contractor takes care of everything: technological and construction design, selection and purchase of equipment, tooling and tools, organization of the construction of the facility and control over its progress, installation and commissioning of equipment, etc. e. Any textbook on project management describes the advantages of EPCM contracts (EPCM from English engineering - engineering, procurement - supply, construction - construction, management - management): cost reduction, predictability of achieving the desired result, flexibility in the distribution of risks and responsibilities, individual approach to the customer.

- This is in the textbook, but how in our reality?

– The system is widely developed in the West and a little in our country – in industries that are largely integrated into the world: in energy and oil and gas production.

As for enterprises defense complex and mechanical engineering in general, the problem is that in most cases the customer simply does not have the opportunity to conclude such a contract, since he works in financial and management regulations that do not allow him to fully invest in the project. Hence the problems. We also cannot be responsible for the entire project. The customer has an organization that is building the facility, but is not responsible for the supply of equipment, for training personnel and building an information corporate system.

- It turns out that there is no customer in the state?

- Not in the state, but in engineering. It exists in the state. When it comes to building a nuclear power plant, no one suggests building it in parts. The nuclear power plant is delivered on a turnkey basis.

- But nuclear power plants are also mechanical engineering ...

“You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideal, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way”

- This is an energy facility, from where an order for turbines and other equipment comes, that is, mechanical engineering acts as a supplier. But the project is managed by the energy company or its general contractor, who is responsible for ensuring that, according to the budget and deadlines, the facility is created and issues required amount megawatt. Here the EPCM contract scheme works great, it needs to be extended to mechanical engineering. And this has been talked about for a long time.

The state should act as a competent customer. Do not ask the heads of companies that carry out defense orders how much money is invested in their factories, but ask how much it will cost to produce a tank. An engineering company will develop a production technology, select equipment and give its approximate cost. We add to it the costs of designing, modernizing production, scheduled repairs, and other related costs, then we divide the amount received by the number of orders and get the price of one. In fact, this is not the same as the cost of a tank at a given enterprise.

The challenge is to ensure the life cycle of the product. AT life cycle products production is just a part - the most important, but no more. And design development, R&D, modernization of operated products and further disposal are financed at best in parts.

Initially, engineers develop the design of the product, then an engineering company or a technological institute enters the work, which develop technical and technological solutions for future production. Based on this information, design estimates are formed. After that, the data is provided to the construction company. We have it the other way around now. Funds are allocated for the construction part. This is the main difference. It is impossible to start building a plant until an engineering company or a technological institute creates a project, receives money for it, and passes the state examination together with the customer.

But organizational and technological design, which plays a crucial role, is not given sufficient attention at this stage. What is the result? A magnificent building was built, the most modern equipment was purchased, but there was not enough money and attention for a thorough organizational and technological design.

Why is it important? Any enterprise is tied to the territory where it is located. For example, if there are enough skilled workers in the region, in order to minimize the cost of purchasing equipment, we can make a project with the maximum possible use of universal machines. But there may be a completely different picture, and then you have to use unmanned technologies, because there is simply no one to supply universal equipment.

These and many other issues must be taken into account at the stage of design work or, in modern terms, when conducting a technological audit of the project.

– How to achieve this?

- The most important thing is to include pre-project procedures in the regulations. This will create a quality plant. Here we can recall the Soviet experience - in the then practice of the concept of "technological audit" was not, but operated on another - "technological design", which was an obligatory phase for any industrial enterprise. And this was financed in a regulated manner based on the volume of total capital investments in the project - exactly what is not there now.

Is it possible to return to this?

- You need to come back! If we are talking about the modernization of production, then it must necessarily be tied to the product that is supposed to be released. Otherwise, we can spend a lot of money, buy good machines and at the same time get a zero result. Because it may turn out: the required product cannot be made on these machines or it is required to develop expensive equipment, and many circumstances not previously taken into account may also open up. As a result, either the product will not be produced at all, or its cost will become prohibitive. Therefore, we are constantly talking about the need for a clear regulation for carrying out work on technological audit and design. And then a high-quality project will be made with a normal feasibility study, which takes into account every step and all the costs of equipment, personnel, equipment, and so on.

We emphasize once again: we need a systemic order from society and the state. The country is participating in global competition, the world is moving from the fifth technological order, from paperless technology to the sixth - to deserted technology. Accordingly, those who do this first will be the undisputed leaders. And today more than half of our economy is still in the fourth dimension.

- And enterprises are run by people who come from the paradigm of the fourth order ...

- Exactly. We need to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward.

Who in the country can do this?

- Previously, the program of industrial policy was and was implemented in each sectoral ministry. Now there is only the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which cannot cover everything, and a certain vacuum appears. So it's up to business. Understanding is required from every corporation: it does not manage thousands of factories, but the production of specific products. It is from this that one should proceed, because the market should be offered a competitive product, and not information about how many factories and machine tools a manufacturer has.

- To this he can answer that he makes tanks that the Ministry of Defense requires, that’s why the demand ...

- So the fact of the matter is that they are not responsible for the tank, but for factories that do not understand what and why they produce. And at arbitrary cost.

But this is one side. Before talking about modernization at any enterprise, one must first understand what product it is included in the production chain, in the interests of which product it is worth introducing innovations and how this will affect the enterprises included in the cooperation. You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideally modern, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way ...

Investments must be considered in a complex, so we are now talking about what corporate leaders need. There are many problems at the factories, but at the corporate level there are more of them exactly because there are many enterprises, they are different, their leaders hold different views and have different life experiences, the teams are well-established and also differ significantly in age and qualifications. And they need to be managed in the same way. And we propose to do this on the basis of the thesis that it is necessary to manage the production of a product, and not a specific plant. There is a director there, let him manage it.

The whole question is in the ability to correctly set tasks, ask the right questions to enterprises that are part of the corporation, and receive the right answers in a single format. And we are talking about technology audit again. What's the point if the audit at a hundred factories of one corporation is carried out by different organizations according to their own methods and each provides the results in its own form? On such a shaky basis, it is basically impossible to draw any conclusions, because there is no link to the final result.

Do you need a regulation?

- Exactly. Which clearly states: what is a technology audit, who has the right to perform it. And every auditor must be certified. Today, technological design can be carried out by anyone, for this you don’t even need licenses and technical education not necessary.

By the way, we can create any kind of regulatory documents, but the money for technological design or technological audit must be included in the budgets of corporations. For engineering, it is necessary to allocate money specifically to enterprises so that they can order engineering services on the side.

This will serve as the best incentive for the development of engineering companies. Now there is no corresponding line in the budget, and even if the head of the corporation wants to order such a service, he does not have the opportunity.

“And he starts looking for reserves?”

- He, for example, asks to carry out the design for free, including the cost of services, say, in the equipment that will be purchased as a result of the project. This distorts the market, so you can not do it. In construction, there are clear rules for paying for design work, and exactly the same rules should be adopted when forming the cost of pre-design work. Need a clear link to estimated cost object, then the understanding will come why such money is requested.

So far, our enterprises are not ready to pay for this - they simply do not understand what they will really get. In addition, many managers do not know what engineering is, or think that it is only about the supply of equipment, and they believe that the Finval company is engaged only in this.

– How to manage modernization?

– Highlight: when a corporation is requested by an enterprise for financial resources a concept of upcoming changes should be drawn up. That is, it is necessary to convey to the corporation what kind of transformations are necessary, how they are planned to be carried out and for what. Modernization should begin primarily with the product, that is, with what the company plans to produce and in what volume. We have a successful track record of creating and defending such concepts.

Is this purely a financial document?

– Justification of investments cannot be made only on the basis of financial calculations. The concept should be based on technological development. It should go from the product, show that there is a clear and long-term demand in the market - only if such information is available, the document will be of interest to the investor.

– Creation of competence centers is now in vogue. In your opinion, do they really contribute to the modernization of the machine-building complex?

– We passionately advocate the creation of centers of excellence. Modern economy implies ensuring competition through the effective interaction of such centers with serial enterprises. But there are also reservations.

- For example, there is a cluster of enterprises that produce approximately the same products and are part of the same structure. The corporation receives a request for funding from them, and it turns out that they need to buy, say, one hundred identical machines, each costing two hundred million rubles. Here the question arises: is it really necessary to give each plant the requested funding, or is it worth creating a single center where there will be not one hundred, but ten such machines, and it will provide all enterprises with products of a specific range?

- The idea is sound.

– Ideally, such a center also works efficiently with orders, fulfills them efficiently and on time, and most importantly, it has up-to-date technological expertise, that is, it monitors market trends and replaces outdated technological processes with new ones in time. For example, if a competence center is created in the field foundry then he must be an expert in that field. It is necessary to connect a scientific base to such a center of competence, the activities of which are aimed at advanced research and development that can outperform competitors. But it is in a narrow specialization, as mentioned above, in casting. This gives groundwork for export. Moreover, it is important to develop both military and peaceful topics. If this is casting, the enterprise can produce both guns and frying pans. You just need to add applied work in the field of science and you can enter world markets.

Are you talking about the realities of our day?

- It should be so, but for today in state structures Ah, there is no single clear understanding of what a competence center is. They still believe that this is just a set of machines that produce standard operations, standard products, and for the enterprise this is another opportunity to receive money from the state.

But the problem is that technologies are changing rapidly, and we advocate that competence centers not only have a set of machines, but also applied science without fail.

We advocate that competence centers have such a composition of equipment and scientific activities that will really turn our country into a world leader in the field of production. When implementing modern technologies in competence centers we will create self-sustaining and innovative products. Yes, at the initial stage, these will be products for their factories, and in the future, the participation of competence centers in international exhibitions will take us to a whole new level - a world leader in manufacturing. Competence centers need to take part in the leading specialized exhibitions as a separate manufacturer, where we can demonstrate our advanced developments and scientific base.

All activities should be directed to the future. Now the ratio of production, for example, is 90 percent - military products, 10 percent - civilian. But over time, this proportion, for obvious reasons, shifts towards the civilian one. The number of civilian orders will increase, including by reducing the cost of production in this particular industry. Competence centers should be leaders not only within the corporation, but across Russia. We will be able to master new types of products, as well as fulfill export orders. We must have the best enterprises in the industry, with impeccable quality of products that meet world standards. And we must be one step ahead of the competition.

In the meantime, everything is turning into “let's save money, we won’t buy machines for everyone, we’ll take ten times less, put it in one place.” This is good, but clearly not enough. The lack of science and incentives for development will lead to the fact that in a couple of years a “garage with nuts” will appear instead of a center of competence. Meanwhile, the corporation that built the center, in addition to saving on equipment, will also want to recoup the costs. And they can only be beaten off in the foreign market, where the center will pick up third-party orders.

- Is it bad to recoup the costs?

- It may happen that the factories of the corporation, all at once, needed some kind of unfortunate nut. And in the center there is a millionth order, because of one nut they will not readjust the machines there and will be right in their own way. What is the result? The problems of factories have worsened - before they had their own equipment, they made this nut if necessary, now there is no such possibility. But factories do not produce nuts, but a certain product. And it may turn out that it will not be finally handed over because of one unfortunate nut. And from here already there is a problem with the delivery of the state defense order. At 99.99 percent, everything is ready, but the nut is missing. And why? Because they said - there is nothing to do at the factory for this machine, the nut is too expensive. Because they consider its cost compared to mass production. But it must be considered in comparison with the cost price in the general product and losses due to the fact that the delivery is delayed for months, as they are waiting for the nut.

- Who decides this issue?

– Managers who make decisions on the creation of competence centers. To avoid such absurd situations, among them there must be technical specialists who are able to foresee and voice these risks. Such decisions cannot be made only on the basis of economic expediency and on the basis of financial calculations.

- In this case, does the country have a regulation for the creation of centers of competence?

- Not. Each corporation independently determines what exactly it means by a competence center and what tasks it intends to solve with its help.

– Are there such centers that fully correspond to their name?

- There is. For example, in our company there is a Center for Engineering Technologies. There, not only the equipment that we supply is presented, but also processing technologies are being developed, machine operators and technologists are being trained. Having experience and the necessary expertise, we can reasonably say on which equipment it is better to produce a product and how to do it optimally. Not cheap or expensive, but only in this way - optimally. The price matters, but the optimum is made up of different things: serialization, risks, the possibility of expanding production, established cooperation, etc. It is one thing to spank nuts in millions of copies, and quite another - a million different nuts. But it is impossible to consider all goals primary.

- What do you think is the way out?

Competence centers need to be created. They will contribute to building technological competencies, the emergence of new breakthrough technologies, and reducing production costs. This, in turn, will increase its competitiveness. It is necessary to realize that in a few years the rearmament of the army and navy of the Russian Federation will be completed and there will be an urgent need for the production of competitive civilian products. Today we need to think about the production of civilian and dual-use products so that the funds spent on the modernization of military-industrial complex enterprises work for the development of the entire Russian economy, increasing the export of high-tech products. By the way, the creation of competence centers is not necessarily the prerogative of state structures. For example, in Germany, in the machine tool industry, which brings in billions of dollars in income and provides the country with a leading position in the world market, 99.5 percent of engineering and manufacturing companies are representatives of small and medium-sized businesses - they play the role of centers of competence there and very successfully.

- And we have?

- It's a bit more complicated for us. The creation of such centers requires large financial costs and the involvement of serious specialists. Few small and medium enterprises are ready for such investments. And the market for engineering services in our mechanical engineering has not yet formed. As for state-owned enterprises, now many corporations are beginning to be interested in creating competence centers, but when organizing them, it is necessary to clearly formulate goals. Technology development should be handled by technologists, not lawyers or financiers. These centers will not always be able to be self-sustaining, but one should clearly understand what problems they will help solve and what kind of results corporate management wants to get from their creation. And besides, it is necessary to understand that the design of such a center is not done instantly. This may take from three months to six months, depending on the volume of the production program and the complexity of cooperation. Because competently designing cooperation is not at all the same as building a building and supplying ten machines. It is necessary to clearly calculate how to ensure that each of the factories of the corporation receives what it needs at a particular moment, and the end customer receives finished products on time with the required quality. We have successful experience in designing such centers.

It should be noted that in the West tenders are announced under ready product, we have a different situation - tenders are held for the supply of equipment. Competence centers have equipment, a scientific base, and relevant competencies. Together, having all these parameters, our competence centers will be able to participate in global tenders for the supply of specific products.

- Who else can solve such problems except you?

- Probably, someone can, if puzzled. But for the most part, no one has done it yet. Too complicated and unpredictable. The main task of corporations is the harmonization of interaction with factories, the construction of a coherent management. In dialogue with us, this task is solved. We can suggest what to pay attention to, help formulate the requirements. Corporate leaders should have a systematic approach to the development of their enterprises. Cooperation should be considered from the point of view of the production of the final product - and this is the most difficult.