The diversity and diversity of anti-crisis measures makes it difficult to identify the most effective and efficient ways to overcome the crisis. The development of a model of anti-crisis personnel management and its inclusion in the activities of the management system is due to the crisis itself and the subsequent decline economic indicators and development prospects. The essence of anti-crisis personnel management, including employees, employers and other owners of the enterprise, is to establish the main factors for the effectiveness of management in a crisis. These relations are based on the principles, methods and forms of influence on the interests, behavior and activities of employees in order to maximize their use. The anti-crisis management model is associated with the disclosure of the necessary potentials of the individual and includes professional and personal blocks.
control
anti-crisis personnel management
model crisis response
professional and personal potential
1. Gutsykova S.V. The relationship of integrative professional important qualities and personal characteristics specialists from different efficiency activities: autoref. dis. ... cand. ps. Sciences. - M.: Institute of Psychology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2012. - 30 p.
2. Zabrodin, Yu.M., Kulapov M.N., Odegov Yu.G. Human psychology and personnel management // Bulletin of the Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanov. - 2005. - No. 2. - P. 53-67.
3. Okhotnikov O.V. Philosophical foundations of the organization's personnel policy // Personnel policy organizations: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. - Issue. 1. - Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. - P. 8–19.
4. Ponomareva O.Ya. Application of the competency model as a direction of personnel policy: from theory to practice // Personnel policy of the organization: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. - Issue. 1. - Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. - S. 29–39.
5. Prozorova, O.N. "Psychology of the self" by E. Erickson and V. Frankl's logotherapy in personnel management: comparative analysis// Actual problems of the humanities. - Tomsk, 2013. - S. 269-271.
6. Ryabov O.A. Modeling of processes and systems: tutorial. - Krasnoyarsk, 2008. - 122 p.
7. Smirnov V.K. Psychology of personnel management in extreme conditions: study guide. - M., 2007.
8. Tokareva Yu.A. Management consulting as an element of system personnel policy // Personnel policy of the organization: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. - Issue. 1. - Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. - S. 148–155.
On the present stage development of the psychological side economic processes actualized the problem of developing a model of anti-crisis personnel management, revealing the idea of maintaining a stable social form during the economic crisis experienced by Russia. Along with the fact that such developments are not uncommon for scientific and research work in the field of personnel management, a great merit of scientists is to pay attention to the analysis of the psychological component of the activities of personnel management services (A.P. Gradov, Yu.M. Zabrodin, O.N. Prozorova, V.K. Smirnov, etc.). The psychology of management and the task of psychological modeling associated with it is just beginning to be developed by the domestic psychological school and a significant contribution to this direction contribute studies containing guidelines necessary for understanding the processes of the personnel component of enterprises (O.E. Alekhina, Yu.I. Bogdanov, T.Yu. Bazarov, A.Ya. Kibanov, O.V. Okhotnikov, etc.). Modeling the process of anti-crisis management, including the development of the professional and personal potential of the personnel of the enterprise, is based primarily on the established didactic essence and features of this process, which have their own specifics during the period of reforms and social crises (T.K. Kovalenko, O.A. Ryabov , Yu.A. Tokareva, A.E. Fedorova and others).
A model is understood as such a mentally represented or materially realized system that, displaying or reproducing the object of study, is able to replace it in such a way that its study gives us new information about this object. The basis of the model of anti-crisis personnel management is the development of the professional and personal potential of employees through psychological technologies, various forms, methods, principles, criteria, components, functions and educational modules.
Taking into account the existing developments in the field of anti-crisis management based on the personal and professional implementation of a specialist, by now the contradictions between:
Numerous research papers addressing questions professional activity in conditions of crises and stresses and requirements for its implementation, and insufficient representation of works that characterize the idea of the integrity of personal and professional readiness to solve problems of an increased level of complexity;
The multidimensionality of the knowledge of the problem of anti-crisis management and the fragmentation of studies that study the professional and personal side of a specialist, psychological aspect its implementation in a crisis;
The need to model the process of anti-crisis management, taking into account the professional and personal component of the development of a specialist and the fragmentation of ideas about targeted models of personnel development in a crisis.
The search for ways to resolve these contradictions determined the problem of our study, which theoretically consists in developing a model of anti-crisis personnel management in a socio-economic crisis based on personal and professional potential, taking into account its structural organization and meaningful fullness, ensuring the successful implementation of professional activities.
The theoretical basis for modeling anti-crisis personnel management based on professional and personal potential are works in the field of scientific modeling (B.V. Biryukov, V.A. Venikov, Yu.A. Gastev, E.S. Geller, O.Ya. Gelman, A. .I. Uemov, V.V. Chavchanidze, V.A. Shtof and others), modeling in psychology (P.K. Anokhin, N.A. Bernstein, V.P. Zinchenko, I.M. Kondakov, B .G. Meshcheryakov and others).
Modeling as a method of scientific knowledge is based on similarity, in which not the object itself is studied, but its analogue, its substitute, and then the results obtained during the study of the model are extrapolated to the object under study. The model can be objectively built and implemented only taking into account the mission, goals and strategy of anti-crisis response, because at its core, is an ideal model of a specialist who can be effective in conditions of professional stress and crisis.
The actualization of the model of anti-crisis personnel management will be complete if a number of external (created by a psychologist) and internal (depending on a specialist) conditions are observed:
1. A systematic approach, which consists in the mandatory participation, in a crisis, of all components of professional and personal potential. In personal: cognitive, emotional and behavioral. In the professional: motivational-need, executive and control-evaluative.
2. A facilitation approach associated with adequate psychological tactics for updating personal resources, since this approach focuses on creating conditions for the individual and collective realization of all components of personal potential in a crisis.
3. Responsible attitude to the process of anti-crisis response. The model will be effective only if the professional himself is aware of the degree of responsibility for the actions taken, wants to make efforts and efforts to his own development and level of professionalism.
An analysis of the existing developments in the field of psychological modeling and support made it possible to form a number of clear guidelines for the theoretical modeling of anti-crisis management:
1) the personal level comes to the fore, i.e. not a ready-made set of professional skills and abilities, but a personal and organizational activity, the ability of a specialist to “grow” through resolution challenging tasks, the ability to analyze personal qualities find conditions for personal growth;
2) the professional level is associated with the ability to quickly create, "design" a way out of the current crisis situation using one's own professional competencies. The implementation of a professional level is associated with the availability of new knowledge and professional skills in a specialist in accordance with the requirements of the market situation.
A generalization of the conducted research allows us to state that the process of anti-crisis response requires the following set of personal and professional qualities and progressive structural changes personalities:
1. Changing the direction of the personality:
Expanding the circle of interests and changing the system of needs;
Actualization of achievement motives;
Increasing need for self-realization and self-development.
2. Increasing experience and advanced training:
Increasing competence;
Development and expansion of skills and abilities;
Mastering new algorithms for solving professional problems;
Increasing the creativity of activities.
3. Development of complex private abilities.
4. Development of professionally important qualities determined by the specifics of the activity.
5. Development of personal and business qualities.
6. Increasing psychological readiness for professional activities under stress. It is known that human activity as a conscious form of diverse behavioral activity is determined not only professional qualities subject, but also his personal characteristics.
Rice. 1. Model of anti-crisis personnel management in the conditions of socio-economic crisis
Based on the principles of system and activity approaches in the development of the model, it is possible to single out structural elements that make it possible to qualitatively assess both the content and the nature of the psychological readiness of the personnel in terms of personal and professional response. So, personal response and readiness to resist crisis processes includes: the cognitive component - contains a body of knowledge about oneself as a professional, about global trends in professional activities, which allow one to withstand and effectively overcome various, including stressful situations. The cognitive component determines the effectiveness of professional activity both independently and in a team. During the period of social overcoming, the structure of the cognitive component undergoes changes with the accumulation necessary knowledge, skills, includes presenting oneself in difficult situations, knowledge about oneself as a person, one’s strengths and weak sides, their attitudes, abilities; emotional component - awareness of signs of emotional comfort, understanding of signs of emotional tension, internal readiness to experience certain professional situations, the ability to empathize, sympathize, express and understand the emotions of others; behavioral - practicality, independence, confidence, allowing you to make decisions independently, the implementation of individual preferences in choosing behavior strategies in problem situations of social interaction, the formation of certain skills that allow you to successfully complete professional tasks, the ability to adequately express yourself in unexpected situations, the ability to control and manage your reactions . Professional education includes: a motivational-need component - the leading determinants of professional activity, the desire to realize oneself in a situation of instability, individual activity, awareness of the need for self-development; executive component - the presence of formed skills and abilities related to professional activities, the ability to apply them in practice; control and evaluation - a conscious attitude to the results of one's own professional conduct, professional development, the ability to evaluate and adjust individual personal and professional skills, planning and achieving a higher level of professionalism and competence.
The problem of modeling the anti-crisis process, taking into account the professional and personal potential of the staff, is a modern formulation of questions traditional for psychology about psychological criteria, about the relationship between personal and professional.
Rice. 2. Model of professional and personal potential of anti-crisis regulation
In our opinion, personal qualities form an important foundation for the professional success of a specialist. Taking into account the professional and personal qualities, the peculiarities of their professional activity, we can say that the successful behavior of a specialist will depend on the consistent achievement of a professional and personal potential sufficient for anti-stress regulation.
Reviewers:
Bannikova L.N., Doctor of Social Sciences, Professor of the Department of Sociology and Social Technologies of Management, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg;
Vasyagina N.N., Doctor of Psychology, Professor, Head of the Department of Educational Psychology, Ural State Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg;
Kozlova OA, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Center for Research on Socioeconomic Dynamics, Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg.
Bibliographic link
Tokareva Yu.A., Kovalenko T.K. MODEL OF ANTI-CRISIS PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT OF AN ENTERPRISE DURING SOCIO-ECONOMIC CRISIS // Basic Research. - 2015. - No. 8-3. – S. 616-619;URL: http://fundamental-research.ru/ru/article/view?id=38951 (date of access: 01/05/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"
The main manifestation of a systemic economic crisis in any market is the so-called liquidity crisis, which is expressed in a drop in sales volumes, and, consequently, in the profitability of production and economic activities. With rational anti-crisis management, it is important to maximize the adaptive ability of management - its ability to quickly "adjust" to the changing business environment and create promising entrepreneurial opportunities. These capabilities are manifested through the ability of the management system:
Expected to reflect dynamic market trends;
Expected the development of market factors;
to rebuild their goals, objectives, functions, tools in accordance with changes in the business environment;
Identify market opportunities and threats by modeling your behavior to adapt to them.
The anti-crisis strategy, as part of the enterprise's anti-crisis business strategy, is designed to link the interests of the enterprise and, in particular, its owners, with changes in the external business environment. From this point of view, marketing strategy can be considered a relatively non-capital intensive process innovation in crisis management. Moreover, an effective anti-crisis marketing strategy can reduce sales and promotion costs (budget) without reducing the effect of income generation.
The anti-crisis strategy is implemented through the use of certain marketing tools, such as:
ǀbringing the volumes and structure of production, the pricing system in accordance with the actual and forecasted state of the market;
─ Market segmentation and allocation of the most marginal or additional consumer segments;
ǀimproving the quality and other factors of consumer value of products in accordance with the needs of target consumer groups;
ǀoptimization of channels and methods of sales;
The use of additional promotion channels, in particular, low-cost “guerrilla” marketing tools, etc.
Unfortunately, there are no ready-made universal recipes for anti-crisis management. In each case, ways to maintain sales volumes, enter new market segments, optimization tools are specific to each particular company. Nevertheless, it seems possible to formulate some general provisions of the anti-crisis management of the enterprise.
From organizational positions, 4 main models of enterprise behavior in a crisis can be distinguished:
Model 1: Do nothing or almost nothing. And, if you do, then only in terms of minimizing the costs of the enterprise. The most typical manifestations of this model are:
Expected reduction in payroll: dismissal of some top managers, a significant part of middle managers and most of the office "plankton". Very often, layoffs also apply to part of the production staff.
Expected reduction in production and purchase volumes.
─ Curtailment of all personnel development programs (training, social package, motivational programs, etc.).
─Total minimization of all types of operating and other expenses (saving on office water, toilet paper, food for employees, gasoline, etc.)
ۀSale of non-core (often core assets).
Expected introduction of a concentration camp management system: tight control over everything and everything.
Such a company relies on its reputation, customer loyalty and the Russian “maybe”. By this - decides "not to twitch", they say, time will tell. Of course, such a model of anti-crisis behavior cannot be considered optimal. It is these companies that are most likely to join the ranks of candidates for bankruptcy.
Model 2. An anti-crisis team is urgently assembled, which solves situational problems “as they become available”:
The anti-crisis team consists, as a rule, of the top managers of the company; in this case, the director becomes the head of the anti-crisis team (group, committee) and takes full responsibility for bringing the company out of the crisis.
as an option: the marketing department turns into an anti-crisis team. Such a model of anti-crisis behavior can give a certain, but limited positive effect.
Model 3. The initial presence in the company of a strategic planning system and a pre-appointed (in case of remote manifestations of pre-crisis events) anti-crisis team or department (in large companies). This approach is characterized by a systematic algorithmic approach to the development of an adjustment of the anti-crisis strategy. It is this model of business behavior that should be recognized as the best option.
Model 4. An outside consulting company is hired, which takes on the functions of an anti-crisis center, develops, and often implements anti-crisis strategy(including marketing strategy).
This model of behavior is optimal for companies that do not have human resources capable of developing and implementing effective crisis management. A consulting company can become an external body of anti-crisis management of the enterprise, up to the replacement of the marketing department.
The main principles of anti-crisis management can be formulated as follows:
1. Monitoring of crisis phenomena in the market and in the activities of the enterprise
2. Urgency of response to crisis phenomena.
3. The adequacy of the enterprise's response to the degree of real threat to its financial and market position.
4. Full mobilization and implementation of internal opportunities for the enterprise to exit the crisis.
When developing an anti-crisis marketing strategy, it is important to take into account the following groups of factors of the external and internal business environment:
─ Main trends in the development of the macro and micro environment (it is recommended to use the principles of scenario modeling)
Expected interests of owners
Expected Resource and Budget Constraints
─Interests of groups of influence (consumers, management, personnel, etc.)
Expected behavior patterns of competitors (their failures and achievements)
Expected by the company key competencies, significant for consumers in a crisis
The algorithm for developing an anti-crisis marketing strategy can be represented as follows:
1. Creation and regulation of the activities of the anti-crisis working group (Committee).
2. Audit of the external and internal environment of the company.
3. Assessment of the market potential and the stability of the company in the market.
4. Adjustment of the strategic and tactical goals of the company's development
5. Generation and comparative analysis of strategic alternatives (strategy options).
6. Risk assessment of the implementation of alternative anti-crisis strategies and analysis of their resource support.
7. Selection and final layout of an anti-crisis marketing strategy
8. Development of a plan (program) of anti-crisis measures (long-term, medium-term, short-term).
9. Revision and reengineering of key business processes that affect the effectiveness of the anti-crisis strategy.
10. Development of a system of indicators for evaluating the implementation of the strategy and monitoring the effectiveness of the implementation of the anti-crisis strategy.
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Assessing the possibility of bankruptcy of business entities involves the use of various forms and methods of accounting for indicators characterizing changes between the general targets of enterprises and particular tasks in order to make decisions on their elimination.
Among the existing methods for analyzing and diagnosing the financial condition of an organization, the two-factor model of E.I. Altman; five-factor model of E.I. Altman based on Z-score; Taffler model, V.Kh. Beaver, the rating number of Saifullin R.S. and Kadykova G.G., six-factor model by O.P. Zaitseva.
The most fundamental is the study of E.I. Altman, which was the basis of numerous subsequent studies conducted in the field of bankruptcy diagnostics.
The most accessible, in terms of ease of use, is a technique similar to the two-factor mathematical model of E.I. Altman when constructing which two indicators are taken into account: and the specific gravity borrowed money in liabilities.
The weight values of these coefficients are determined empirically and are for the indicator of current liquidity (coverage) K p = - 1.0736 and for the indicator of the share of borrowed funds in the liabilities of the organization K z = +0.0579.
Then the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of the organization in accordance with the two-factor model of E.I. Altman can be determined by formula (1):
Z \u003d - 0.3877 - 1.0736K p + 0.0579K s, (1)
where: - 03877 - constant coefficient;
K p - indicator of current liquidity (coverage);
K z - an indicator of the share of borrowed funds in the liabilities of the organization.
Moreover, if Z takes a value equal to zero, then the probability of bankruptcy of the organization is 50%, if Z< 0, то вероятность банкротства менее 50 % и если Z >0, then the probability of bankruptcy is more than 50%, which increases with increasing Z.
However, when calculating the possible bankruptcy of an organization using the two-factor model method, certain aspects are not reflected. financial activities organizations, expressed by the turnover of assets, profitability, the rate of change in sales proceeds, etc.
Five-factor model of E.I. Altman's Z-score system takes into account five indicators that are calculated in the process of conducting a multiplicative discriminant analysis (Multiple-discriminant analysis - MDA) of the financial condition of an organization.
The discriminant analysis model is represented as formula (2):
D \u003d b 0 + b l K l + b 2 K 2 + b 3 Ki +. +b k K k , (2)
where D is the discriminant indicator (discriminant);
b - discriminant coefficient, or weight;
K is the predictor, or independent variable.
Coefficients b 0 , b 1 , b 2 , b 3 …. b k are defined as the ratio of the intergroup sum of squares to the intragroup sum of squares for the discriminant scores maximum.
The Z-score indicator, which characterizes the creditworthiness of an organization, can be calculated using the formula (3):
Z-score \u003d 1.2 x K 1 + 1.4 x K 2 + 3.3 x K 3 + 0.6 x K 4 + K 5, (3)
K 3 - return on assets;
K 4 - the ratio of the market value of all ordinary and preferred shares of the organization to borrowed funds;
K 5 - asset turnover.
The advantage of this model is that it provides a definition of bankruptcy of organizations with a high degree its probabilities.
In conditions typical for the economy of the Republic of Belarus, when the profitability of individual organizations is largely exposed to the risk of external fluctuations, the model presented above makes it possible to assess the financial situation of enterprises not only from the standpoint of their viability, but also the sustainability of financial and economic activities in the future. At the same time, the basis for the formation of these models are empirical factors, which are a set of coefficients that are determined specifically for each industry, but can vary significantly in terms of indicators. Therefore, a modified version of E.I. Altman, taking into account the circumstances associated with the valuation of shares that have not yet been quoted on the stock exchange, can be expressed by formula (4):
R \u003d 8.38 x K 1 + K 2 + 0.054 x K 3 + 0.63 x K 4, (4)
where R is the final bankruptcy probability coefficient;
K 1 - the share of net working capital in assets;
K 2 - the ratio of accumulated profit to assets;
K 3 - return on assets;
K 4 - book value of shares.
At the same time, this model assumes the presence of an actively operating, secondary market for securities, on which their price can be determined, and in the conditions of its underdevelopment, the use of the Z-score indicator is inappropriate.
Having studied the models of E.I. Altman, from the standpoint of its viability for different business conditions, R. Tuffler and G. Tishaw formed a four-factor model of the financial insolvency of enterprises, the content of which was argued by the need to introduce variable indicators (formula 5):
where Z is the final bankruptcy probability coefficient;
To 1 - the ratio of profit from sales to short-term liabilities;
K 2 - the ratio of current assets to the amount of liabilities;
K 3 - the ratio of short-term liabilities to the amount of assets;
K 4 - the ratio of sales proceeds and total assets.
At the same time, the variable To 1 plays a dominant role in comparison with others, and in conditions when the distinguishing predictive ability of the model is lower compared to the Altman Z-score, even slight fluctuations in the economic situation in the country and the presence of possible errors in the initial data when calculating financial ratios can lead to erroneous conclusions .R. Tuffler and G. Tishaw found that with Z > 0.3 the probability of bankruptcy is low, and with Z< 0,2 высокая.
At the same time, the predictive model of R. Taffler and G. Tishaw does not include a market valuation of a business in the form of a stock quote, and its use in business practice has not been widely used.
After analyzing the set of coefficients characterizing the activities of bankrupt companies, W. Beaver grouped them into six groups, which allowed him to establish that the most important indicator in each of the groups is the indicator reflecting the ratio of inflow Money and borrowed capital, and proposed a five-factor system for assessing the financial condition of an organization for diagnosing bankruptcy, including the following indicators:
return on assets;
the share of borrowed funds in liabilities;
current liquidity ratio;
share of net working capital in assets;
Beaver coefficient, which is the ratio of the sum net profit and depreciation on borrowed funds.
Based on these provisions, to determine the probability of bankruptcy according to the W. Beaver model, the obtained values of the indicators can be compared with the standard indicators for prosperous firms that went bankrupt within a year and became bankrupt within 5 years (table 1).
Table 1 ? Determining the probability of bankruptcy according to the W. Beaver model
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Indicators |
Calculation of indicators |
Normative values of indicators for different groups |
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Prosperous companies 5 years before bankruptcy 1 year before bankruptcy |
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Economic profitability |
Net profit Balance currency |
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financial leverage |
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Current liquidity ratio |
current assets Current responsibility |
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Coefficient coverage of assets by net working capital |
Own - Non-working capital |
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Beaver's ratio |
Net income + Depreciation Long-term + Short-term liabilities |
The methodology for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of organizations using the step-by-step discriminant method proposed by G. Springate makes it possible to determine the risk of insolvency with an accuracy of more than 90% of the enterprises under study. Its peculiarity is that in such a model only 4 financial ratios are used (formula 6):
Z = 1.03K 1 +3.07K 2 +0.66K 3 +0.4K 4, (6)
where K 1 - working capital;
K 2 - profit before tax + interest payable;
K 3 - profit before tax h short-term liabilities;
K 4 - proceeds (net) from sales.
The probability of bankruptcy of the organization is determined by the calculated parameters Z, based on the position that if Z is less than 0.862, then the probability of bankruptcy is high, if Z is greater than 0.862, then bankruptcy is unlikely.
French scientists J. Conan and M. Golder, based on the method of multiple discriminant analysis, developed a methodology for assessing the solvency of organizations, which made it possible to assess the probability of delaying payments by an organization. The model describes the probability of a crisis situation (bankruptcy) for various values of the KG index:
KG \u003d - 0.16K 1 - 0.22K 2 + 0.87K 3 - 0.10K 4 - 0.24K 5, (7)
where K 1 is the share of fast-moving liquid funds (cash + short-term financial investments+ short-term accounts receivable) in assets;
K 2 - the share of long-term sources of financing in liabilities;
To 3 - the ratio of financial expenses (paid interest on borrowed funds + income tax) to the net proceeds from the sale;
K 4 - the share of personnel costs in gross profit;
To 5 - the ratio of accumulated profit and borrowed capital.
Depending on the value of KG, an assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of the organization is given on a certain scale, presented in table 3.
Table 3 - Determination of the probability of bankruptcy by the method of Konnan-Golder
The accuracy of this technique is 90%.
In real conditions, the use of the listed bankruptcy forecasting models in business practice did not bring sufficiently accurate results. This is primarily due to the fact that two - three-factor models are not sufficiently accurate. Prediction accuracy increases if more factors are taken into account.
These models should only be used as an aid to the analysis of organizations. Relying entirely on their results is unwise and dangerous. They should only be used after verification and correction in the environment of future use.
The models presented above contain weights and thresholds for complex and partial indicators, which are calculated on the basis of country analyzes of the sixties and seventies of the last century. They do not correspond to the current economic situation in the Republic of Belarus.
Also, the disadvantages of the considered methods include:
the forecasting period in the considered models ranges from three to five years, and in some models the forecasting period is not indicated at all. In the conditions of a dynamically developing economy of the Republic of Belarus, the use of a forecasting period equal to five years, as is the case in the models of foreign authors, is premature, and it is necessary to use shorter periods of time (up to one to three years), these methods make it possible to determine the probability of an approaching bankruptcy of an organization, however they do not allow predicting the onset of the growth phase and other phases life cycle organizations.
Of particular interest are individual models proposed by Russian scientists:
five-factor model of R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov.
six-factor model of O.P. Zaitseva;
Unfortunately, their use does not always guarantee the accuracy of assessing the financial position of an organization in the conditions of the Republic of Belarus.
Russian scientists R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov made an attempt to adapt the "Z-score" model of E.I. Altman. They suggested using a rating number to assess the financial condition of organizations:
R \u003d 2K o + 0.1K t + 0.08K and + 0.45K m + K pr, (8)
where K o - coefficient of provision with own funds; K tl - coefficient of current liquidity; K and - asset turnover ratio; K m - commercial margin (profitability of product sales); K pr - return on equity.
With full compliance of financial ratios with their minimum standard levels, the rating number will be equal to one and the organization will have a satisfactory state of the economy. The financial condition of organizations with a rating number less than one is characterized as unsatisfactory.
Model R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov is the most accurate of all the presented models, however, a small change in the equity ratio from 0.1 to 0.2 leads to a change in the final indicator ("rating number") to:
R1 \u003d (0.2 - 0.1) x 2 \u003d 0.2 points.
A significant change in the current liquidity ratio from zero (from complete illiquidity) to two leads to the same result, which characterizes highly liquid organizations:
R2 = (2 - 0) x 0.1 = 0.2 points
Assessing the existing methods for assessing the economic condition of an organization and predicting the probability of bankruptcy, it can be concluded that a model that meets the economic conditions of the Republic of Belarus, taking into account the specifics of the country's economy or the industry as a whole, does not yet exist.
High sensitivity model R.S. Saifulin to the change in the share of short-term liabilities is explained by the use in the model of a slightly overestimated weight coefficient for the indicator of the ratio of net working capital to an asset. As a result, no realistically achievable indicators of current liquidity, business activity and profitability cannot ensure the achievement of an acceptable value of the integral indicator.
The complex coefficient of bankruptcy in the six-factor mathematical model of O.P. Zaitseva is calculated by the formula:
K set \u003d 0.25K pack + 0.1K s + 0.2K s + 0.25K ur + 0.1K fr + 0.1K zag, (9)
where K UP - loss ratio of the organization, characterized by the ratio of net loss to equity;
K z - the ratio of accounts payable and receivable;
K c - an indicator of the ratio of short-term liabilities and the most liquid assets, this coefficient is the reciprocal of the indicator absolute liquidity;
K ur - unprofitable sales of products, characterized by the ratio of net loss to the volume of sales of these products;
To fr - the ratio of borrowed and equity capital;
K zag - the asset utilization factor as the reciprocal of the asset turnover ratio.
The weighting values of private indicators for the conditions of functioning of domestic organizations were determined by an expert, and the actual complex bankruptcy rate should be compared with the normative one, calculated on the basis of the recommended minimum values of private indicators:
K up = 0; K z \u003d 1; K c = 7; K ur = 0; Kfr = 0.7;
K zag = value of K zag in the previous period.
If the actual complex coefficient is greater than the normative one, then the probability of bankruptcy is high, and if it is less, then the probability of bankruptcy is small. The absence of statistical materials on bankrupt organizations in the Republic of Belarus does not allow adjusting the methodology for calculating weight coefficients and threshold values, taking into account economic conditions, and the determination of these coefficients by expert means does not provide sufficient accuracy. Weight values of partial indicators, for operating conditions Russian organizations, were determined by an expert, and the actual complex bankruptcy rate should be compared with the normative one, calculated on the basis of the recommended minimum values of private indicators given in Table 4.
Table 4 - Minimum values of private indicators
Determination of weight coefficients in the O.P. Zaitseva is not entirely justified, since the weight coefficients in this model were determined without taking into account the correction for the relative value of the partial coefficient values. For example, the normative value of the ratio of urgent liabilities and the most liquid assets is seven, and standard values the loss ratio of the organization and the loss ratio of sales of products are equal to zero. In this regard, even small changes in one of the above indicators lead to fluctuations in the final value, ten times stronger than the change in the above coefficients, although, according to the author of this model, they, on the contrary, should have had a greater weight value compared to the ratio term liabilities and the most liquid assets.
All of the above methods take into account the state of indicators only at the time of analysis, and changes in dynamics over time are not considered. The exceptions are: the dynamics of profit in the second version of Altman's "Z-score" and the dynamics of the asset utilization factor of O.P. Zaitseva.
Despite the relative external similarity of the domestic and Russian systems of market economic development, there are quite significant internal differences in the economic policies of neighboring states, which in turn casts doubt on the reliability of the forecast of the models discussed above in relation to the organizations of the Republic of Belarus.
Bankruptcy forecasting models developed by Belarusian scientists include G.V. Savitskaya.
This technique consists in classifying organizations according to the degree of risk based on the actual level of financial stability indicators and the rating of each indicator, expressed in points. The technique has the form presented in table 5.
Table 5 - Grouping of indicators according to the criteria for assessing the financial condition
|
Index |
Class boundaries according to criteria |
|||||
|
Absolute liquidity ratio |
0.25 or more |
|||||
|
Quick liquidity ratio |
||||||
|
Current liquidity ratio |
||||||
|
Autonomy coefficient |
0.6 or more |
|||||
|
SOS security factor |
0.5 or more |
|||||
|
Ratio of reserve stocks of SOK |
||||||
|
Minimum border value |
Based on the methodology of G.V. Savitskaya organization can be attributed to one of the following classes:
An organization with a good margin of financial stability, allowing you to be sure of the return of borrowed funds;
Organizations showing some degree of debt risk but not yet considered to be in trouble;
Problematic organizations - there is hardly a risk of losing funds, but the full receipt of interest seems doubtful;
An organization at high risk of bankruptcy. Even after taking measures for financial recovery, creditors risk losing all funds and interest;
Organizations of the highest risk, practically insolvent;
Bankrupt organizations.
The advantages of this model include its domestic origin and positive feedback when testing the model on samples of domestic organizations.
As a result of the material discussed in this section, it is possible to draw the following conclusions.
1. Economic potential - the ability of an enterprise to achieve its goals, using its material, labor and financial resources. There are two sides of economic potential: property status commercial organization and her financial situation.
2. The financial position is determined by the results achieved during the reporting period financial results and, in addition, is described by some balance sheet items, as well as the relationships between them. At the same time, from a short-term perspective, they talk about the liquidity and solvency of the organization, and in the long term - about financial stability.
3. The financial condition of an economic entity is a characteristic of its financial competitiveness (i.e. solvency, solvency), use financial resources and capital, fulfillment of obligations to the state and other economic entities.
4. Financial and economic analysis is a comprehensive, evidence-based economic research financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Theoretical foundations financial and economic analysis is a set of scientific principles used in the study of economic phenomena.
5. The main source of information for analyzing the financial position of the organization is the balance sheet. Forms of financial statements are also used: form No. 2 "Profit and loss statement", form No. 3 "Statement of the movement of funds and other funds", form No. 4 "Statement of cash flows", form No. 5 "Appendix to the balance sheet ", the data of the current accounting.
1The article is devoted to the homeostatic approach to the analysis and synthesis of systems in the aspect of developing mechanisms to bring systems out of a crisis state on the example of economic systems. A conceptual analysis of the concept of "anti-crisis management of the system" has been carried out, its intension has been constructed, and the tasks of creating an anti-crisis management system have been determined. The main modern approaches to the analysis of crisis situations in the economy, their advantages and disadvantages. The existing methods of analysis and modeling of the financial and economic state of the enterprise were considered, namely the methods of factorial financial analysis: Altman model, Fulmer model, Springate model, J. Lego model. The article describes the difference between the proposed method and the currently existing ones, which lies in the fact that the concept of system integrity is applied, which consists in taking into account the interaction of opposing opposing driving forces, factors. And also the concept of "crisis" is understood as the exit of the system from the state of harmonious dynamically balanced action of these opposites. The described method proposes a generalized mechanism for searching, analyzing and balancing such opposing factors. An example of automating the task is given and examples of cognitive maps for analyzing the actual state of the ideal states of a particular enterprise are given.
control
crisis management
cognitive modeling
homeostatics
conceptual analysis and design
1. S.P. Nikanorov. Conceptualization of subject areas. M.: Concept, 2009, -268 p.
2. A.G. Teslinov. Conceptual thinking in solving complex and intricate problems. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2009 - 288 p.
3. New philosophical encyclopedia. - 2nd ed., corrected. and add. - M.: Thought, 2010. - T. 1-4. - 2816 p.
4. Systems of factors of influence on the process of managing the development of an enterprise / // D.V. Butenko, L.N. Butenko, E.B. Zhuravleva International Journal of Applied and Fundamental Research. - 2009. - No. 4. - C. 115-116.
5. D. V. Butenko. Conceptual analysis of the anti-crisis management system // Izv. VolgGTU. Series "Actual problems of control, computer technology and informatics in technical systems". Issue. 9: intercollegiate. Sat. scientific Art. / VolgGTU. - Volgograd, 2010. - No. 11. - C. 47-49.
6. D.V. Butenko, Vershkov A.B. Automation of the production modeling process. Conceptual management / Modern science-intensive technologies. - 2009. - No. 6. - C. 57-58.
7. The use of crisis-forecast models in diagnosing the financial solvency of enterprises [ Electronic resource]. - 2007. - Access mode: http://www.science-bsea.narod.ru/2007/ekonom_2007_2/kaziev_prim.htm
During a crisis, an enterprise or organization is exposed to an increased number of risks, the manager must be able to quickly switch to a new efficient mode of operation of his business. Anticipating crisis manifestations, promptly overcoming them and planning the development of an enterprise during a crisis period become topical tasks. There is a need to model the sustainability of the organization, taking into account changes in significant economic parameters that characterize the work of the organization. It is assumed that an organization works stably if it keeps its parameters within the optimal values when external influences change over time.
Conceptual methods currently being developed by the school of S.P. Nikanorov, provide a powerful tool for transferring knowledge between different, sometimes far from each other, subject areas, which allows you to create a multidimensional view of the area under study and see other horizons. Analysis by these methods is carried out by highlighting the most general concepts related to the formulation of the problem. Ultimately general concepts are called categories. Categories are metalinguistic cognitive formations, which include definitions of classes of concepts that are used in the tasks of systematizing knowledge and the cognitive process. Categories fix knowledge classes, stages and factors of cognitive processes, therefore they are included in the knowledge management system. Let's start by defining categories for our topics. Let's carry out a conceptual analysis of the concept of "anti-crisis management of the system" by considering its components.
The very concept of "crisis" has many different definitions and is used in various fields, for example, financial, political, energy, psychological, environmental, etc. From the whole set of definitions of a crisis, the following components can be distinguished: homeostasis, disappearance, balance of power, conflict, imbalance, growth, avalanche. Thus, a general definition can be formed. Crisis (Greek krisis - decision, turning point) - a turning point, upheaval or time of a transitional state, when the system loses its homeostatic properties, the balance of forces is lost or the balance in the interaction between the elements of the system is disturbed, leading to a change in the strategy of the system's behavior and the emergence of new types of interaction and the acquisition of new properties by the system. The process occurs like an avalanche and generates a constantly replenishing open set of problems that impede management.
Anti (Greek anti - against, instead of), a prefix meaning: opposite, hostility to something, directed against something.
The concept of "management" also has many definitions, which include the following categories: planning - the definition of the desired state and ways to achieve it; accounting - fixing the deviation from the planned goals; control and analysis - identification of problem situations; regulation or operational management - the adoption and implementation of a decision to eliminate deviations, as a solution to a problem situation. The relationship between planning and operational management can be represented by a contraction graph.
Anti-crisis management also needs to be considered as some special management system. Let us give the definition of the system. System (from other Greek σύστημα - “combination”) is a set of interconnected objects and resources organized by the process of system genesis into a single whole and, possibly, opposed to an environment or a supersystem. The whole exists within certain limits in a state of equilibrium of opposing forces. In system analysis, a system is defined as a set of entities (objects) and relationships between them, isolated from the environment for a certain time and with a specific purpose.
To construct the intension of the concept of "anti-crisis management", it is necessary to construct the intension of the concept of "anti-crisis". To do this, it is necessary to invert all concepts associated with the concept of "crisis". In this case, "anti-crisis" is also a transitional state, the purpose of which is to restore homeostatic properties, dynamic balance of forces and balance in the interaction between the elements of the system.
To build an anti-crisis management system, it is necessary to determine the parameters of the system in the “crisis” state. To begin with, it is necessary to build a control system for current processes, where scales with some poles are defined. On each scale of process parameters we will consider these poles to be those beyond which the system enters a state of instability. Beyond these poles there will be crisis parameters of the system.
This kind of dynamics is studied by homeostatics, the science of dynamically stable systems, where the “principle of harmony” is the basis of equilibrium. Thanks to this beginning, the interaction of the poles is dynamically constant. Based on the assumptions of homeostatics, the extreme states of a certain controlled process can be represented as poles between which dynamic equilibrium is maintained, then the area of harmonious states will be the one formed by the boundaries of the "golden section", spaced from both poles in accordance with the ratio 1/0.0618.
Figure 1. Zones of harmonious state and crisis states of the system.
The basis of the dynamic stability of the system is the homeostatic principle of equilibrium. The core of this principle is the following:
The system will be in a state of dynamic stability if it is in the balance of two opposing factors and there is a third acting factor that dynamically regulates this opposition;
For sustainable operation between the input and output parameters of the system, an interaction must be observed, for which optimal, dangerous and critical zones are allocated; the optimal zone is characterized by two boundaries in accordance with the so-called "golden section".
Based on the principles described above and a conceptual analysis of the concepts of anti-crisis management, it becomes possible to start designing such a system. Then its main tasks will be:
Analysis of the current parameters of the system processes;
Keeping the parameters of the system in a state of equilibrium;
Crisis warning, i.e. tracking trends in changes in system parameters on their scales in order to determine the conditions and time for reaching the key states of the limits of permissible values;
Restoration of the parameters previously achieved by the system to the state of their mutual stable equilibrium;
The transition of the system to a new qualitative state with other parameters, where their ratios will be stable and dynamically balanced.
Based on the list of these tasks, we can conclude that the main difference between the anti-crisis management system is that it incorporates the following intellectual components. A prediction subsystem that should determine the parameters of states with new qualitative properties and a decision support subsystem for a possible transition from the current state to one of the possible dynamically stable states.
The results of the analysis of the concepts included in the concept of "anti-crisis management of the system" allow us to form its intension. The anti-crisis management of the system is a homeostatic type system that ensures the return of the original system to the state of dynamic stability of its parameters when interacting with external environment and keeping it in a state of previously achieved equilibrium (before the crisis), or transferring the system to a new qualitative state. Based on this definition, we can single out the requirement for the anti-crisis management system:
Monitoring of current values of system parameters;
Construction of homeostatic type control subsystems according to the key parameters of the systems;
Predicting system behavior as a result of aggressive impact environment. This requires a procreative vision of the external impact (foreseeing possible negative impacts and creating a reserve for unforeseen situations to maintain the main objective function);
Subsystem for determining problem situations of the process of system genesis, building their models;
Subsystem of strategic and tactical planning for the behavior of the system in the above-defined states;
Decision support subsystem for overcoming crisis conditions.
Note that the solution of the totality of these problems will ensure the creation of a control system for the stable development of systems of any type.
To build a dynamic stability model economic system in time, we have considered the existing methods of analysis and modeling of the financial and economic state of the enterprise.
In the course of the study, the following methods of factorial financial analysis were considered: the Altman model, the Fulmer model, the Springate model, the J. Lego model.
The Altman model takes into account the following factors: the degree of liquidity of assets, the level of return on assets, the level of return on assets, the ratio of equity to borrowed capital, asset turnover.
The Fulmer model includes factors: the ratio of retained earnings of previous years to total assets, the ratio of sales volume to total assets, the ratio of profit before taxes to total assets, the ratio cash flow to total debt, the ratio of debt to total assets, the ratio of current liabilities to total assets, the logarithm of tangible assets, the ratio of working capital to total debt, and the logarithm of the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to interest paid.
The Springate model takes into account: the ratio of working capital to the assets of the enterprise, the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to the total amount of assets, the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to the total amount of short-term liabilities, the ratio of sales proceeds to the total amount.
J. Lego's model includes: the ratio of share capital to the total amount of assets, the ratio of profit before tax and financing costs to the total amount of assets, the ratio of turnover for the previous two periods to the total amount of assets for the same periods.
The reliability of these models ranges from 60 to 90%. The Altman and J. Lego models are applicable only to joint-stock companies. The forecast is given for a maximum of two years in advance, and the longer the forecast horizon, the less the reliability of the results.
All these models are used only to calculate the probability of bankruptcy in the next 1-2 years. In a crisis, it is much more important for a manager to identify and neutralize the reasons for the deterioration in the financial condition of an enterprise than to know what is the probability of bankruptcy of his organization in the near future.
Analysis of the above models shows that they do not solve the problem of determining the dynamic stability of the enterprise. In the course of the analysis, two groups of factors that are opposite were identified. The first group characterizes economic activity enterprises, i.e. it includes everything that relates to indicators of production efficiency, the second characterizes the financial condition of the enterprise, it includes the efficiency of using financial resources organizations.
The results of the analysis of known models are necessary for formulating a model of anti-crisis management.
The concept of such a dynamic system is shown in Figure 2. The model represents a six-pointed star, consisting of two triangles superimposed on each other - the first one is directed upwards, the second downwards.
Figure 2. Conceptual model for assessing the financial and economic sustainability of an enterprise
The economic component consists of the factors “Means of production and objects of labor” and “Labor resources”, “Enterprise activity” is their regulator. The regulator is necessary for the distribution of resources, based on various parameters, such as: the degree of mechanization and automation of production; availability of necessary material and financial resources; organizational and technical level of the enterprise; the level of concentration and specialization of production; technical and energy armament of labor; progressiveness technological processes; level marketing activities to study the demand for products; product competitiveness; sales markets; organization of trade and advertising.
Based on the results obtained, the optimal values of the factors can be determined:
“Means of production and objects of labor”, which can be characterized using the following indicators: capital return, capital productivity, capital intensity, average annual cost of fixed assets, depreciation, output per machine hour, utilization rate of existing equipment, material intensity, material productivity, cost of used objects of labor ;
"Labor resources", which includes the following coefficients: the security of the enterprise labor resources; full use of the working time fund; fund wages; indicators of labor productivity, profit per employee and per ruble of wages, etc.
The financial component consists of the factors "Profit" and "Costs", "The financial condition of the enterprise" is their regulator. The regulator is needed to get the maximum profit from optimal amount costs. This happens by regulating the values of various parameters, such as: the presence and structure of the enterprise's capital in terms of the composition of its sources and forms of placement; efficiency and intensity of use of own and borrowed funds; solvency; financial stability.
The optimal values of the factors are determined:
"Profit", which can be characterized using all indicators of profit and profitability;
"Costs", which includes the following coefficients: the volume of gross, marketable and sold products in value, in-kind and conventionally-in-kind terms; product structure, its quality; the rhythm of production; the volume of shipment and sales of products; leftovers finished products in stock; the total amount of costs for the sale of products, including by elements, cost items, types of products; ruble costs marketable products; the cost of an individual product, etc.
Note that the polar groups of parameters that characterize the stability of the system are separated in such a way that polar interaction is also observed within these groups. This leads to the fact that the presented model does not negate, but absorbs its counterparts. It is important that a systematic approach is preserved, since all these parameters are calculated on the basis of well-known hierarchical economic models. Such a representation is the basis for the design of an automated system that performs a complete analysis of the balance of organization parameters and issues recommendations to achieve dynamic stability at any time.
Based on the results of calculating the factors, a model was built that reflects the current financial stability of a particular “enterprise X”. In the absence of the opportunity to fully present the calculations based on the model developed by us, we omit this part, and present only the results.
Figure 3 - Cognitive models. The ideal and real model of enterprise sustainability X.
Based on the results of such simulations, cognitive maps are compiled on real examples of "enterprise X", an example of which is shown in Figure 3. The results indicate that the management of the enterprise is investing in new materials or new equipment. This forces him to reduce the number or train workers, so labor productivity falls. This process requires special control, otherwise it can lead to serious consequences.
Conceptual analysis of the concept of "anti-crisis management" allows us to identify the basic concepts of anti-crisis management and formulate requirements for the design of such a system;
Selection from known models factor analysis polar groups of factors characterizing the work of the economic system; building their interactions within these groups; development of a model of dynamic stability of the economic system using the principles of homeostatics.
Cognitive modeling of the anti-crisis management system allows you to create cognitive maps of the current state of the system and carry out synthetic work to develop recommendations for the organization to enter a state of stability.
The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant 14-07-00196 Modeling of harmonious integral systems
Reviewers:
Goncharova M.V., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Economics and Finance of Enterprises, Volgograd Technical University, Volgograd.
Ulyanova O.Yu., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department " economic theory and Economic Policy, Volgograd State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Volgograd.
Bibliographic link
Butenko D.V., Butenko L.N., Bugriy R.S., Koshechkin Ya.S. MODELING OF ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF THE HOMEOSTATIC APPROACH // Modern problems of science and education. - 2014. - No. 3.;URL: http://science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=13768 (date of access: 01/05/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"
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